No abstract

While deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many challenging inverse problems like image inpainting and super-resolution, they invariably involve problem-specific training of the networks. Under this approach, different problems require different networks. In scenarios where we need to solve a wide variety of problems, e.g., on a mobile camera, it is inefficient and costly to use these specially-trained networks. On the other hand, traditional methods using signal priors can be used in all linear inverse problems but often have worse performance on challenging tasks. In this work, we provide a middle ground between the two kinds of methods -we propose a general framework to train a single deep neural network that solves arbitrary linear inverse problems. The proposed network acts as a proximal operator for an optimization algorithm and projects non-image signals onto the set of natural images defined by the decision boundary of a classifier. In our experiments, the proposed framework demonstrates superior performance over traditional methods using a wavelet sparsity prior and achieves comparable performance of specially-trained networks on tasks including compressive sensing and pixel-wise inpainting.

Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

Galaxy-scale strong gravitational lensing is not only a valuable probe of the dark matter distribution of massive galaxies, but can also provide valuable cosmological constraints, either by studying the population of strong lenses or by measuring time delays in lensed quasars. Due to the rarity of galaxy-scale strongly lensed systems, fast and reliable automated lens finding methods will be essential in the era of large surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and WFIRST. To tackle this challenge, we introduce CMU DeepLens, a new fully automated galaxy-galaxy lens finding method based on Deep Learning. This supervised machine learning approach does not require any tuning after the training step which only requires realistic image simulations of strongly lensed systems. We train and validate our model on a set of 20,000 LSST-like mock observations including a range of lensed systems of various sizes and signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). We find on our simulated data set that for a rejection rate of non-lenses of 99%, a completeness of 90% can be achieved for lenses with Einstein radii larger than 1.4 and S/N larger than 20 on individual g-band LSST exposures. Finally, we emphasize the importance of realistically complex simulations for training such machine learning methods by demonstrating that the performance of models of significantly different complexities cannot be distinguished on simpler simulations. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/McWilliamsCenter/CMUDeepLens.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) can achieve promising performance on learning complex data distributions on different types of data. In this paper, we first show a straightforward extension of existing GAN algorithm is not applicable to point clouds, because the constraint required for discriminators is undefined for set data. We propose a two fold modification to GAN algorithm for learning to generate point clouds (PC-GAN). First, we combine ideas from hierarchical Bayesian modeling and implicit generative models by learning a hierarchical and interpretable sampling process. A key component of our method is that we train a posterior inference network for the hidden variables. Second, instead of using only state-of-the-art Wasserstein GAN objective, we propose a sandwiching objective, which results in a tighter Wasserstein distance estimate than the commonly used dual form. Thereby, PC-GAN defines a generic framework that can incorporate many existing GAN algorithms. We validate our claims on ModelNet40 benchmark dataset. Using the distance between generated point clouds and true meshes as metric, we find that PC-GAN trained by the sandwiching objective achieves better results on test data than the existing methods. Moreover, as a byproduct, PC-GAN learns versatile latent representations of point clouds, which can achieve competitive performance with other unsupervised learning algorithms on object recognition task. Lastly, we also provide studies on generating unseen classes of objects and transforming image to point cloud, which demonstrates the compelling generalization capability and potentials of PC-GAN.

We aim at constructing a high performance model for defect detection that detects unknown anomalous patterns of an image without anomalous data. To this end, we propose a two-stage framework for building anomaly detectors using normal training data only. We first learn self-supervised deep representations and then build a generative one-class classifier on learned representations. We learn representations by classifying normal data from the CutPaste, a simple data augmentation strategy that cuts an image patch and pastes at a random location of a large image. Our empirical study on MVTec anomaly detection dataset demonstrates the proposed algorithm is general to be able to detect various types of real-world defects. We bring the improvement upon previous arts by 3.1 AUCs when learning representations from scratch. By transfer learning on pretrained representations on ImageNet, we achieve a new state-of-theart 96.6 AUC. Lastly, we extend the framework to learn and extract representations from patches to allow localizing defective areas without annotations during training.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance Statement This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

Purpose: Treatment outcomes for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have improved steadily, but a significant proportion of patients still experience relapse due to drug resistance, which is partly explained by inherited and/or somatic genetic alternations. Recently, we and others have identified genetic variants in the ARID5B gene associated with susceptibility to ALL and also with relapse. In this study, we sought to characterize the molecular pathway by which ARID5B affects antileukemic drug response in patients with ALL.Experimental Design: We analyzed association of ARID5B expression in primary human ALL blasts with molecular subtypes and treatment outcome. Subsequent mechanistic studies were performed in ALL cell lines by manipulating ARID5B expression isogenically, in which we evaluated drug sensitivity, metabolism, and molecular signaling events.Results: ARID5B expression varied substantially by ALL subtype, with the highest level being observed in hyperdiploid ALL. Lower ARID5B expression at diagnosis was associated with the risk of ALL relapse, and further reduction was noted at ALL relapse. In isogenic ALL cell models in vitro, ARID5B knockdown led to resistance specific to antimetabolite drugs (i.e., 6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate), without significantly affecting sensitivity to other antileukemic agents. ARID5B downregulation significantly inhibited ALL cell proliferation and caused partial cell-cycle arrest. At the molecular level, the cell-cycle checkpoint regulator p21 (encoded by CDKN1A) was most consistently modulated by ARID5B, plausibly as its direct transcription regulation target.Conclusions: Our data indicate that ARID5B is an important molecular determinant of antimetabolite drug sensitivity in ALL, in part, through p21-mediated effects on cell-cycle progression.