Enrollment forecasters have much to consider. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods can sometimes be the best approach. Methods and Techniques of Enrollment Forecasting Paul T. Brinkman, Chuck McIntyreInstitutional researchers are often called on to conduct or assist with enrollment forecasts. Occasionally, personnel in institutional-planning offices, in state agencies, or in the marketing offices of continuing education divisions will be called on to produce such forecasts. Enrollment forecasts are fundamental elements of planning and budgeting at any higher education institution that depends on student enrollments or at any agency or organization that has responsibilities for supporting those institutions. Numerous institutional policy issues are related to enrollment forecasts-tuition policy, budget forecasting, faculty staffing, institutional closure or consolidation, and optimizing objectives related to the size and composition of enrollment (Weiler, 1987a).There is no one right way to forecast enrollment. In this chapter, we discuss a variety of approaches and associated issues. We relate choices of method or technique to specific circumstances and situations in an effort to provide some guidance to readers in choosing their own approaches. We focus on forecasting institutional enrollments. Factors Affecting EnrollmentNo one factor determines enrollments at a college or university. For the economist, enrollment will be determined by the intersection of measured supplyand-demand curves. For the demographer, enrollments are related to numbers of people and where they are located. For the higher education administrator, enrollment is determined by the combined effects of many manageable and unmanageable factors, categories that are roughly, though not completely, equivalent to supply and demand. In addition, there is always the possibility that a
he current interest in assessment of student and institutional perfor-1 mance has special significance for the nation's two-year community pllegcs. Indeed, the Latin roots of the word assessment, "ad" and "sedere," W r i i n g to "sit beside." are well suited to multipurpose institutions, whose output is so vaned, ranging from knowledge of the humanities to specific skills for jobs. Many of these job skills can be assessed only by observing actual performance beside the student.Because community college students represent a wide racial, ethnic, and cultural spectrum andenroll with avarietyofskillsand capabilities, accurateass e s m e n t and timely advising should be able to help these students begin their college work a t the proper level and help them form realistic academic and career objectives.The results of assessment should be particularly appealing to community colleges because they enroll many high-risk students. But valid criteria for interpreting results are needed so that community colleges are not at a comparative disadvantage. To illustrate, suppose a university accepts students who, o n some set of measures, obtain average scores at the 90th percentile of a like general cohort on entry and are at the 93rd percentile upon completion oftheir work. By contrast, community colleges may enroll students who, using the same measures, score at the 50th percentile on entry, but the 70th percentile on exit. Comparing the work of these two institutions solely on the basis of the end results produces conclusions that ai-e quite different from what they wotild be if the work ofthe two institutions wei~e compared o n the basis of the increase o r "value added" to students. The latter basis is a persuasive way for comnirinity colleges to be accountable to their constituents.The use o f assessnient for placing students and providing evidence of their achieveriic.nt helps explain why most conimrinity c-ollc*ges. in oiic w i l y o r 111other, arc conirnittcd to itsdevelopment. But assessment niay be more difficult for community colleges than for other types of p o s t s w o i k u y institutions.Likc. ot tic-r institutions, community colleges ( I ) fact-cducational obstacles in using assessniciit rtrsults to place students i n progranis and courses; (2) find it diffcult t o isolate the contribution ofcollege from that of natural maturation and other less obvious factors in the cognitive and affertive growth of students;(3) have troublc aggregating data on student assessinent for piirposes of evaluating die institution; and (4) do not always have ways t o translate assessment findings t o operative improvements-the real p y o f f of this work.Unlike other institutions, however, community colleges ( 1 ) face more legal and cultural ol>stacles in using tests to advise and I>lilce students; (2) cannot employ the usiial currency, such as diplomas, t o nieasure oiitconies; (3) place more emphasis o n equity objectives, as contrasted with efficiency objectives; and (4) oftcn have fewer resources with which t o assess the res...
ing strategies-particularly with regard to enrollment management and academic programming. All other college planning-of support services, technology, facilities, finance, and the like-follows.The consequences of different futures for managing a college's enrollments can be simulated using an econometric model (McIntyre, 1999). Once the statistical parameters of the model are estimated, future values for the independent variables can be specified from scenarios and the dependent variable, future enrollment, measured in both number and kind (preparation, preferences, personal characteristics), then simulated and analyzed for each scenario.While theoretically sound, this method is only as helpful as the forecasts or projections of independent variables like service area population, economy, prices, unemployment, culture and competitors are accurate. These variables, in turn, depend on plausible and prescient future scenarios.For college academic planning, the scenarios must embody projections about the area's economic future and likely job market trends. Community resources for obtaining such information are abundant from the typical government planning and employment development departments, non-profit local and regional planning agencies, Chuck McIntyre is an education consultant, researcher, and manager. His clients over the past four decades include colleges in California,
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.