Planning for a College's Future

Abstract

ing strategies-particularly with regard to enrollment management and academic programming. All other college planning-of support services, technology, facilities, finance, and the like-follows.The consequences of different futures for managing a college's enrollments can be simulated using an econometric model (McIntyre, 1999). Once the statistical parameters of the model are estimated, future values for the independent variables can be specified from scenarios and the dependent variable, future enrollment, measured in both number and kind (preparation, preferences, personal characteristics), then simulated and analyzed for each scenario.While theoretically sound, this method is only as helpful as the forecasts or projections of independent variables like service area population, economy, prices, unemployment, culture and competitors are accurate. These variables, in turn, depend on plausible and prescient future scenarios.For college academic planning, the scenarios must embody projections about the area's economic future and likely job market trends. Community resources for obtaining such information are abundant from the typical government planning and employment development departments, non-profit local and regional planning agencies, Chuck McIntyre is an education consultant, researcher, and manager. His clients over the past four decades include colleges in California,