In the present study, a recently developed novel approach (Bender et al. in J Hydrol 514:123-130, 2014) has been further extended to investigate the changes in the joint probabilities of extreme offshore and nearshore marine variables with time and to assess design the total water level (TWL) at the shoreline under the effects of climate change. The nonstationary generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution has been utilised to model the marginal distribution functions of marine variables (wave characteristics and sea levels), within a 40-year moving window. All parameters of the GEV were tested for statistically significant linear and polynomial trends over time, and best-fitted trends have been detected. Different copula functions were fitted at the 40-year moving windows, to model the dependence structure of extreme offshore significant wave heights and peak spectral periods, and of wave-induced sea levels on the shoreline and nearshore sea levels due to storm surges. The most appropriate bivariate models were then selected. Statistically significant polynomial trends were detected in the dependence parameters of the selected copulas, and time-dependent most likely bivariate events were extracted to be used in the estimation of the TWL at the shoreline. The methods of the present work were implemented in three selected Greek coastal areas in the Aegean Sea. The analysis revealed different variations in the most likely estimates of the offshore wave characteristics and nearshore storm surges in the three study areas, as well as in the time-dependent estimates of TWL at the shoreline. The approach combines nonstationarity and bivariate analysis, blends coastal and offshore marine features and finally provides non-trivial alterations in the response of coastal sea level dynamics to climate change signals, compared to former work on the subject. The methodology produces reasonable estimates of design quantities for coastal structures and boundary conditions for the assessment of flood hazard and risk in coastal areas.
The IANOS Medicane was one the most severe storms that have formed in the Mediterranean Sea with Category 2 Hurricane characteristics. The storm induced a signi cant increase of sea level elevation along its pathway and caused the occurrence of storm surges at the central Ionian Sea with consequent impacts on coastal regions of the Ionian islands and western Greece. A multi-platform approach, based on hydrodynamic ocean simulations, nested to meteorological and coastal ooding simulations, is used in combination with eld and satellite observations to describe the marine weather conditions, the storm surge characteristics, and the coastal inundation processes due to the impact of IANOS Medicane in September 2020. Both wind and atmospheric pressure patterns affected the storm surge variability over the Ionian Sea. The direct intrusion of the Medicane from the central Mediterranean Sea towards the Ionian Sea formed storm surges over several coastal areas, even before the storm's landfall, due to the accompanying onshore currents. Storm surges in the order of 30 cm generated extensive ooding over lowland coastal areas, as con rmed by both satellite (Normalized Difference Water Index: NDWI) and numerical (coastal inundation modeling) data. Satellite-derived and simulated estimations showed that, in speci c coastal regions, the run-up of seawater extended up to 200 m inland, depending on the hydraulic connectivity between the lowland areas, which determined the inundation extents during the storm surge.
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