Nonstationary joint probability analysis of extreme marine variables to assess design water levels at the shoreline in a changing climate

Γαλιατσάτου, Παναγιώτα; Makris, Christos; Prinos, P.; Kokkinos, Dimitrios T.

doi:10.1007/s11069-019-03645-w

Cited by 22 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 91 publications

(120 reference statements)

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“…The general inception of a changing climate, characterized by extreme marine events of higher intensity and frequency and MSL rise [14], increases vulnerability and exposure of port and harbor structures to different failure modes, resulting in their inability to fulfill their requirements. The increased probability of failure of such structures under higher (than those designed for) hydraulic…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate

Γαλιατσάτου¹,

Makris²,

Prinos³

2018

JMSE

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The present work aims at presenting an approach on implementing appropriate mitigation measures for the upgrade of rubble mound breakwaters protecting harbors and/or marinas against increasing future marine hazards and related escalating exposure to downtime risks. This approach is based on the reliability analysis of the studied structure coupled with economic optimization techniques. It includes the construction of probability distribution functions for all the stochastic variables of the marine climate (waves, storm surges, and sea level rise) for present and future conditions, the suggestion of different mitigation options for upgrading, the construction of a fault tree providing a logical succession of all events that lead to port downtime for each alternative mitigation option, and conclusively, the testing of a large number of possible alternative geometries for each option. A single solution is selected from the total sample of acceptable geometries for each upgrading concept that satisfy a probabilistic constraint in order to minimize the total costs of protection. The upgrading options considered in the present work include the construction or enhancement of a crown wall on the breakwater crest, the addition of the third layer of rocks above the primary armor layer of the breakwater (combined with crest elements), the attachment of a berm on the primary armor layer, and the construction of a detached low-crested structure in front of the breakwater. The proposed methodology is applied to an indicative rubble mound breakwater with an existing superstructure. The construction of a berm on the existing primary armor layer of the studied breakwater (port of Deauville, France), seems to be advantageous in terms of optimized total costs compared to other mitigation options.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate

Γαλιατσάτου¹,

Makris²,

Prinos³

2018

JMSE

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“…Thus, TWL can provide the boundary conditions for flooding and erosion hazard studies and the estimation of related coastal risks. Very recently, studies focusing on estimating TWL at the shoreline have started including components to simulate seasonality, interannual variability, and trends of the marine climate, as well as considering dependencies between the different variables of TWL [24][25][26].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Γαλιατσάτου

Makris²,

Krestenitis³

et al. 2021

JMSE

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In the present work, a methodological framework, based on nonstationary extreme value analysis of nearshore sea-state parameters, is proposed for the identification of climate change impacts on coastal zone and port defense structures. The applications refer to the estimation of coastal hazards on characteristic Mediterranean microtidal littoral zones and the calculation of failure probabilities of typical rubble mound breakwaters in Greek ports. The proposed methodology hinges on the extraction of extreme wave characteristics and sea levels due to storm events affecting the coast, a nonstationary extreme value analysis of sea-state parameters and coastal responses using moving time windows, a fitting of parametric trends to nonstationary parameter estimates of the extreme value models, and an assessment of nonstationary failure probabilities on engineered port protection. The analysis includes estimation of extreme total water level (TWL) on several Greek coasts to approximate the projected coastal flooding hazard under climate change conditions in the 21st century. The TWL calculation considers the wave characteristics, sea level height due to storm surges, mean sea level (MSL) rise, and astronomical tidal ranges of the study areas. Moreover, the failure probabilities of a typical coastal defense structure are assessed for several failure mechanisms, considering variations in MSL, extreme wave climates, and storm surges in the vicinity of ports, within the framework of reliability analysis based on the nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The methodology supports the investigation of future safety levels and possible periods of increased vulnerability of the studied structure to different ultimate limit states under extreme marine weather conditions associated with climate change, aiming at the development of appropriate upgrading solutions. The analysis suggests that the assumption of stationarity might underestimate the total failure probability of coastal structures under future extreme marine conditions.

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“…As time-series of observed water level are commonly not longer than 100 years, there have been attempts to find suitable theoretical statistical distributions of extreme values which could be used to find reliable values for return periods. This is a complicated issue since the data may be too short, inaccurate or non-stationary (Mudersbach Jensen, 2010;Galiatsatou et al, 2019). Moreover, there could be different populations of storms which result in extreme values which do not follow the chosen distribution (Suursaar and Sooäär, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

Kudryavtseva

Soomere

Männikus

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Analysis and prediction of water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea are difficult tasks because of the contribution of various drivers to the water level, the presence of outliers in time series, and possibly non-stationarity of the extremes. Non-stationary modeling of extremes was performed to the block maxima of water level derived from the time series at six locations in the Gulf of Riga and one location in the Baltic proper, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018. Several parameters of the generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution of the measured water level maxima both in the Baltic proper and in the interior of the Gulf of Riga exhibit statistically significant changes over these years. The most considerable changes occur to the shape parameter ξ. All stations in the interior of the Gulf of Riga experienced a regime shift: a drastic abrupt drop in the shape parameter from ξ≈0.03±0.02 to ξ≈-0.36±0.04 around 1986 followed by an increase of a similar magnitude around 1990. This means a sudden switch from a Fréchet distribution to a three-parameter Weibull distribution and back. The period of an abrupt shift (1986–1990) in the shape parameters of GEV distribution in the interior of the Gulf of Riga coincides with the significant weakening of correlation between the water level extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The water level extremes at Kolka at the entrance to the Gulf of Riga reveal a significant linear trend in shape parameter following the ξ≈-0.44+0.01(t-1961) relation. There is evidence of a different course of the water level extremes in the Baltic proper and the interior of the Gulf of Riga. The described changes may lead to greatly different projections for long-term behavior of water level extremes and their return periods based on data from different intervals. Highlights. Water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga are analyzed for 1961–2018. Significant changes in parameters of generalized-extreme-value distribution are identified. Significant linear trend in shape parameter is established at Kolka. The shape parameter changes in a step-like manner. The shape parameter of GEV has regime shifts around 1986 and 1990 in the gulf.

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Nonstationary joint probability analysis of extreme marine variables to assess design water levels at the shoreline in a changing climate

Cited by 22 publications

References 91 publications

Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate

Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Non-stationary analysis of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018

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