Hox genes controlling motor neuron subtype identity are expressed in rostro-caudal patterns that are spatially and temporally collinear with their chromosomal organization. Here we demonstrate that Hox chromatin is subdivided into discrete domains, controlled by rostro-caudal patterning signals that trigger rapid, domain-wide clearance of repressive H3K27me3 Polycomb modifications. Treatment of differentiating mouse neural progenitors with retinoic acid (RA) leads to activation and binding of RA receptors (RARs) to Hox1-5 chromatin domains, followed by a rapid domain-wide removal of H3K27me3 and acquisition of cervical spinal identity. Wnt and FGF signals induce expression of Cdx2 transcription factor that binds and clears H3K27me3 from Hox1-9 chromatin domains, leading to specification of brachial/thoracic spinal identity. We propose that rapid clearance of repressive modifications in response to transient patterning signals encodes global rostro-caudal neural identity and that maintenance of these chromatin domains ensures transmission of the positional identity to postmitotic motor neurons later in development.
Background: Artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled analysis of 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) may facilitate efficient estimation of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, it remains unclear whether AI provides meaningful and generalizable improvement in predictive accuracy beyond clinical risk factors for AF. Methods: We trained a convolutional neural network ("ECG-AI") to infer 5-year incident AF risk using 12-lead ECGs in patients receiving longitudinal primary care at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). We then fit three Cox proportional hazards models, each composed of: a) ECG-AI 5-year AF probability, b) the Cohorts for Heart and Aging in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE-AF) clinical risk score, and c) terms for both ECG-AI and CHARGE-AF ("CH-AI"). We assessed model performance by calculating discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC) and calibration in an internal test set and two external test sets (Brigham and Women's Hospital and UK Biobank). Models were recalibrated to estimate 2-year AF risk in the UK Biobank given limited available follow-up. We used saliency mapping to identify ECG features most influential on ECG-AI risk predictions and assessed correlation between ECG-AI and CHARGE-AF linear predictors. Results: The training set comprised 45,770 individuals (age 55±17 years, 53% women, 2,171 AF events), and the test sets comprised 83,162 individuals (age 59±13 years, 56% women, 2,424 AF events). AUROC was comparable using CHARGE-AF (MGH 0.802, 95% CI 0.767-0.836; BWH 0.752, 95% CI 0.741-0.763; UK Biobank 0.732, 95% CI 0.704-0.759) and ECG-AI (MGH 0.823, 95% CI 0.790-0.856; BWH 0.747, 95% CI 0.736-0.759; UK Biobank 0.705, 95% CI 0.673-0.737). AUROC was highest using CH-AI: MGH 0.838, 95% CI 0.807-0.869; BWH 0.777, 95% CI 0.766-0.788; UK Biobank 0.746, 95% CI 0.716-0.776). Calibration error was low using ECG-AI (MGH 0.0212; BWH 0.0129; UK Biobank 0.0035) and CH-AI (MGH 0.012; BWH 0.0108; UK Biobank 0.0001). In saliency analyses, the ECG P-wave had the greatest influence on AI model predictions. ECG-AI and CHARGE-AF linear predictors were correlated (Pearson r MGH 0.61, BWH 0.66, UK Biobank 0.41). Conclusions: AI-based analysis of 12-lead ECGs has similar predictive utility to a clinical risk factor model for incident AF and both approaches are complementary. ECG-AI may enable efficient quantification of future AF risk.
Electronic health record (EHR) datasets are statistically powerful but are subject to ascertainment bias and missingness. Using the Mass General Brigham multi-institutional EHR, we approximated a community-based cohort by sampling patients receiving longitudinal primary care between 2001-2018 (Community Care Cohort Project [C3PO], n = 520,868). We utilized natural language processing (NLP) to recover vital signs from unstructured notes. We assessed the validity of C3PO by deploying established risk models for myocardial infarction/stroke and atrial fibrillation. We then compared C3PO to Convenience Samples including all individuals from the same EHR with complete data, but without a longitudinal primary care requirement. NLP reduced the missingness of vital signs by 31%. NLP-recovered vital signs were highly correlated with values derived from structured fields (Pearson r range 0.95–0.99). Atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction/stroke incidence were lower and risk models were better calibrated in C3PO as opposed to the Convenience Samples (calibration error range for myocardial infarction/stroke: 0.012–0.030 in C3PO vs. 0.028–0.046 in Convenience Samples; calibration error for atrial fibrillation 0.028 in C3PO vs. 0.036 in Convenience Samples). Sampling patients receiving regular primary care and using NLP to recover missing data may reduce bias and maximize generalizability of EHR research.
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