The explosion of corporate risk management programs in the early 1990s was a hasty and ill-conceived reaction by U.S. corporations to the great "derivatives disasters" of that period. Anxious to avoid the fate of Barings and Procter & Gamble, most top executives were more concerned about crisis management than risk management. Many companies quickly installed (often outrageously priced) value-at-risk (VaR) systems without paying much attention to how such systems fit their specific business requirements. Focused myopically on loss avoidance and technical risk measurement issues, the corporate risk management revolution of the '90s thus got underway in a disorganized, "ad hoc" fashion, producing a curious amalgam of policies and procedures with no clear link to the corporate mission of maximizing value. 2002 Morgan Stanley.
Der nachstehende Aufsatz wird mit freundlicher Genehmigung des Journal of Applied Corporate Finance zeitgleich deutschen Lesern zugänglich gemacht. Bereits vor seiner Veröffentlichung hat dieser wissenschaftliche Beitrag zu einem aktuellen Thema eine lebhafte internationale Diskussion in den Medien ausgelöst. Er muß als Lehrstück zum sachgerechten Einsatz von Termingeschäften angesehen werden und enthält zugleich eine Interpretation der Vorgänge in der Metallgesellschaft
We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using “pseudo firms” that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo firm assets. Empirically, like corporate spreads, pseudo bond spreads are large, countercyclical, and predict lower economic growth. Using this framework, we find that bond market illiquidity, investors' overestimation of default risks, and corporate frictions do not seem to explain excessive observed credit spreads but, instead, a risk premium for tail and idiosyncratic asset risks is the primary determinant of corporate spreads. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G13, G24, G32)
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