2018
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151606
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Option-Based Credit Spreads

Abstract: We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using “pseudo firms” that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo firm assets. Empirically, like corporate spreads, pseudo bond spreads are large, countercyclical, and predict lower economic growth. Using this framework, we find that bond market illiquidity, investors' overestimation of default risks, and corporate frictions do not se… Show more

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Cited by 81 publications
(19 citation statements)
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References 39 publications
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“…Kelly et al (2016) study the US …nancial-sector tail risk during the 2007-2009 crisis from the price of out-of-themoney puts. Culp et al (2018) empirically extend Merton's put insights. Siriwardane (2019) uses Carr and Wu's default corridor to infer credit-risk spreads.…”
Section: Related Literaturementioning
confidence: 56%
“…Kelly et al (2016) study the US …nancial-sector tail risk during the 2007-2009 crisis from the price of out-of-themoney puts. Culp et al (2018) empirically extend Merton's put insights. Siriwardane (2019) uses Carr and Wu's default corridor to infer credit-risk spreads.…”
Section: Related Literaturementioning
confidence: 56%
“…Our work also relates to recent research that uses data from options markets to understand credit risk and bank risk. Culp, Nozawa, and Veronesi (2014) construct pseudo firms that have traded securities as assets (e.g., a stock index) and pseudo bonds-a combination of Treasuries and put options-as liabilities. In one of their applications, they also consider a bank that owns a portfolio of pseudo bonds.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…5 See, e.g., Elton, Gruber, Agrawal, and Mann (2001), Longstaff, Mithal, and Neis (2005), Chen, Lesmond, and Wei (2007), Feldhütter and Schaefer (2018), and Culp, Nozawa, and Veronesi (2018).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%