This paper applies methods of multiple resolution map comparison to quantify characteristics for 13 applications of 9 different popular peer-reviewed land change models. Each modeling application simulates change of land categories in raster maps from an initial time to a subsequent time. For each modeling application, the statistical methods compare: (1) a reference map of the initial time, (2) ence map of the subsequent time, and (3) a prediction map of the subsequent time. The three possible two-map comparisons for each application characterize: (1) the dynamics of the landscape, (2) the behavior of the model, and (3) the accuracy of the prediction. The three-map comparison for each application specifies the amount of the prediction's accuracy that is attributable to land persistence versus land change. Results show that the amount of error is larger than the amount of correctly predicted change for 12 of the 13 applications at the resolution of the raw data. The applications are summarized and compared using two statistics: the null resolution and the figure of merit. According to the figure of merit, the more accurate applications are the
123Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change 13 ones where the amount of observed net change in the reference maps is larger. This paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of models using scientifically rigorous, generally applicable, and intellectually accessible statistical techniques.
JEL Classification
A segmentation and hierarchical classification approach applied to QuickBird multispectral satellite data was implemented, with the goal of delineating residential land use polygons and identifying low and high socio-economic status of neighbourhoods within Accra, Ghana. Two types of object-based classification strategies were tested, one based on spatial frequency characteristics of multispectral data, and the other based on proportions of Vegetation-Impervious-Soil sub-objects. Both approaches yielded residential land-use maps with similar overall percentage accuracy (75%) and kappa index of agreement (0.62) values, based on test objects from visual interpretation of QuickBird panchromatic imagery.
In recent decades, fire frequency has increased with population growth at the wildland–urban interface in southern California, USA. Short intervals (<5 years) between successive fires can be detrimental to plant species that require longer intervals between fires to reach reproductive maturity. The resilience of vegetation to changes in fire regimes is of particular interest for shrublands in Mediterranean climates, which in general are susceptible to high frequencies of wildfire. Research on how fire has shaped the life histories of shrubs in Mediterranean climates is central to understanding how to protect sensitive habitat while allowing for the natural occurrence of wildfire in these regions. Frequently burned chamise chaparral shrublands in San Diego County, California, were mapped in the field with the aid of satellite imagery and analysed to investigate changes in vegetation condition and composition associated with short intervals between fires. Fire history, terrain and land-cover characteristics of mapped stands were tested to determine the factors associated with disturbed and converted vegetation. Results indicate that number of burns and mean fire interval are contributing factors in post-fire change in chaparral stands. Chamise chaparral is vulnerable to alteration and type conversion when fire return intervals are 4–5 years or less.
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