Two problems concerning anticipation effort as an important cognitive resource for improved avionics safety are addressed: (1) assessment of the probability that the random actual ('subjective') anticipation time is below the (also random) available ('objective') time and (2) evaluation of the likelihood of success of the random shortterm anticipation from the predetermined (non-random) long-term anticipation. Unlike the traditional statistical approach, when experimentations are done first and are followed by statistical analyses, our novel concept suggests that probabilistic predictive modelling is done first and is followed by experimentation. The concept proceeds from the fundamental understanding that nobody and nothing is perfect and that the difference between a success and a failure in a particular effort, a situation, or a mission is, in effect, 'merely' the difference in the level of the never-zero probability of failure.
Tous droits réservés pour tous pays.La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.