Probabilistic modelling of the concept of anticipation in aviation

Abstract

Two problems concerning anticipation effort as an important cognitive resource for improved avionics safety are addressed: (1) assessment of the probability that the random actual ('subjective') anticipation time is below the (also random) available ('objective') time and (2) evaluation of the likelihood of success of the random shortterm anticipation from the predetermined (non-random) long-term anticipation. Unlike the traditional statistical approach, when experimentations are done first and are followed by statistical analyses, our novel concept suggests that probabilistic predictive modelling is done first and is followed by experimentation. The concept proceeds from the fundamental understanding that nobody and nothing is perfect and that the difference between a success and a failure in a particular effort, a situation, or a mission is, in effect, 'merely' the difference in the level of the never-zero probability of failure.

Degraded situation awareness in a robotic workspace: accident report analysis

“…The third level (SA level 3) is about the ability to make a projection of the future state, determining the consequence of subsequent actions and the evolution of all elements of the environment, including the various parts of the robotic system. According to Suhir et al (2015), the major components of that projection are environment awareness -here the workspace -, system awareness -here the robot -, and task awareness. SA plays a major role in the process of decision making (Endsley 1995).…”

Degraded situation awareness risk assessment in the aerospace domain

“…Numerous Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods have been proposed to identify and analyze the causes and consequences of human errors [2,3,5,13,16,17]. These methods, based for instance on HFACS methodology (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System [3]) or on a computational model [13], sometimes offer a way to quantify human error probabilities and to provide Probability Risk Assessments (PRA), see Fig.1.…”

“…Several well-known accidents in aeronautics and astronautics have been examined from the point of view of human factors and situation awareness (SA) degradation [3,5]. Endsley proposed a model of human decision and situation awareness based on different factors that affect perception, action or anticipation [6,17]. However, probabilistic risk assessment linked to SA degradation is difficult because accidents are very different and statistical studies cannot easily be implemented.…”

Bayesian network for the prediction of situation awareness errors

“…While lots of effort has been put on failure analysis, objective and subjective measurements during training or real time operations, it is still difficult to characterize the risk of SA degradation and to predict human errors. As SA degradation is often linked with workload and human capabilities, a possible approach is to estimate the mental workload and the human capacity factor in a double exponential probability distribution function (Suhir 2013(Suhir , 2015. However, the workload does not include all cases of situation awareness problems.…”