Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their developmen

Abstract:The physical elements of the circulation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are reviewed. A picture of the circulation is sketched by means of recent observations from the WOCE decade. We present and discuss the role of forcing functions (wind stress, surface buoyancy flux) in the dynamical balance of the flow and in the meridional circulation and study their relation to the ACC transport. The physics of form stress at tilted isopycnals and at the ocean bottom are elucidated as central mechanisms in the momentum balance. We explain the failure of the Sverdrup balance in the ACC circulation and highlight the role of geostrophic contours in the balance of vorticity. Emphasis is on the interrelation of the zonal momentum balance and the meridional circulation, the importance of diapycnal mixing and eddy processes. Finally, new model concepts are described: a model of the ACC transport dependence on wind stress and buoyancy flux, based on linear wave theory; and a model of the meridional overturning and the mean density structure of the Southern Ocean, based on zonally averaged dynamics and thermodynamics with eddy parametrization.

Stratospheric ozone depletion and emission of greenhouse gases lead to a trend of the southern annular mode (SAM) toward its high-index polarity. The positive phase of the SAM is characterized by stronger than usual westerly winds that induce changes in the physical carbon transport. Changes in the natural carbon budget of the upper 100 m of the Southern Ocean in response to a positive SAM phase are explored with a coupled ecosystem-general circulation model and regression analysis. Previously overlooked processes that are important for the upper ocean carbon budget during a positive SAM period are identified, namely, export production and downward transport of carbon north of the polar front (PF) as large as the upwelling in the south. The limiting micronutrient iron is brought into the surface layer by upwelling and stimulates phytoplankton growth and export production but only in summer. This leads to a drawdown of carbon and less summertime outgassing (or more uptake) of natural CO2. In winter, biological mechanisms are inactive, and the surface ocean equilibrates with the atmosphere by releasing CO2. In the annual mean, the upper ocean region south of the PF loses more carbon by additional export production than by the release of CO2 into the atmosphere, highlighting the role of the biological carbon pump in response to a positive SAM event.

Ongoing global warming induced by anthropogenic emissions has opened the debate as to whether geoengineering is a 'quick fix' option. Here we analyse the intended and unintended effects of one specific geoengineering approach, which is enhanced weathering via the open ocean dissolution of the silicate-containing mineral olivine. This approach would not only reduce atmospheric CO 2 and oppose surface ocean acidification, but would also impact on marine biology. If dissolved in the surface ocean, olivine sequesters 0.28 g carbon per g of olivine dissolved, similar to land-based enhanced weathering. Silicic acid input, a byproduct of the olivine dissolution, alters marine biology because silicate is in certain areas the limiting nutrient for diatoms. As a consequence, our model predicts a shift in phytoplankton species composition towards diatoms, altering the biological carbon pumps. Enhanced olivine dissolution, both on land and in the ocean, therefore needs to be considered as ocean fertilization. From dissolution kinetics we calculate that only olivine particles with a grain size of the order of 1 µm sink slowly enough to enable a nearly complete dissolution. The energy consumption for grinding to this small size might reduce the carbon sequestration efficiency by ∼30%.