Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

BACKGROUND:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. METHODS:In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1-97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Molisani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years. RESULTS:Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index. CONCLUSIONS:Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sexspecific prevention strategies. ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE A trial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease that increases the risk of morbidity and mortality in aging women and men. Sex Differences and Similarities in Atrial1-3 Considerable sex differences in prevalence, incidence, and mortality have been reported.2,4 AF prevalence in middle-aged and older community cohorts is almost twice as high in men as in women. [5][6][7] The increasing prevalence of AF and subsequent public health and economic burden require research efforts to understand sex differences in disease distribution and risk factor associations. 5 The onset of AF diminishes the survival advantage in women. 8 Risk of adverse outcomes in AF also appears to differ by sex, eg, st...

Aims Long-term sequelae may occur after SARS-CoV-2 infection. We comprehensively assessed organ-specific functions in individuals after mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with controls from the general population. Methods and results Four hundred and forty-three mainly non-hospitalized individuals were examined in median 9.6 months after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test and matched for age, sex, and education with 1328 controls from a population-based German cohort. We assessed pulmonary, cardiac, vascular, renal, and neurological status, as well as patient-related outcomes. Bodyplethysmography documented mildly lower total lung volume (regression coefficient −3.24, adjusted P = 0.014) and higher specific airway resistance (regression coefficient 8.11, adjusted P = 0.001) after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cardiac assessment revealed slightly lower measures of left (regression coefficient for left ventricular ejection fraction on transthoracic echocardiography −0.93, adjusted P = 0.015) and right ventricular function and higher concentrations of cardiac biomarkers (factor 1.14 for high-sensitivity troponin, 1.41 for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, adjusted P ≤ 0.01) in post-SARS-CoV-2 patients compared with matched controls, but no significant differences in cardiac magnetic resonance imaging findings. Sonographically non-compressible femoral veins, suggesting deep vein thrombosis, were substantially more frequent after SARS-CoV-2 infection (odds ratio 2.68, adjusted P < 0.001). Glomerular filtration rate (regression coefficient −2.35, adjusted P = 0.019) was lower in post-SARS-CoV-2 cases. Relative brain volume, prevalence of cerebral microbleeds, and infarct residuals were similar, while the mean cortical thickness was higher in post-SARS-CoV-2 cases. Cognitive function was not impaired. Similarly, patient-related outcomes did not differ. Conclusion Subjects who apparently recovered from mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection show signs of subclinical multi-organ affection related to pulmonary, cardiac, thrombotic, and renal function without signs of structural brain damage, neurocognitive, or quality-of-life impairment. Respective screening may guide further patient management.

Reichart D, Magnussen C, Zeller T, Blankenberg S (University Heart Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany). Dilated cardiomyopathy: from epidemiologic to genetic phenotypes. J Intern Med 2019; 286: 362-372.Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is characterized by left ventricular dilatation and, consecutively, contractile dysfunction. The causes of DCM are heterogeneous. DCM often results from myocarditis, exposure to alcohol, drugs or other toxins and metabolic or endocrine disturbances. In about 35% of patients, genetic mutations can be identified that usually involve genes responsible for cytoskeletal, sarcomere and nuclear envelope proteins. Due to its heterogeneity, a detailed diagnostic work-up is necessary to identify the specific underlying cause and exclude other conditions with phenotype overlap. Patients with DCM show typical systolic heart failure symptoms, but, with progress of the disease, diastolic dysfunction is present as well. Depending on the underlying pathology, DCM patients also become apparent through arrhythmias, thromboembolic events or cardiogenic shock. Disease progression and prognosis are mostly driven by disease severity and reverse remodelling within the heart. The worst prognosis is seen in patients with lowest ejection fractions or severe diastolic dysfunction, leading to terminal heart failure with subsequent need for left ventricular assist device implantation or heart transplantation.Guideline-based heart failure medication and device therapy reduces the frequency of heart failure hospitalizations and improves survival.

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Background: Even on optimal therapy, many patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation experience cardiovascular complications. Additional treatments are needed to reduce these events, especially in patients with heart failure and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods: This prespecified subanalysis of the randomized EAST - AFNET 4 trial assessed the effect of systematic, early rhythm control therapy (ERC; using antiarrhythmic drugs or catheter ablation) compared to usual care (UC, allowing rhythm control therapy to improve symptoms) on the two primary outcomes of the trial and on selected secondary outcomes in patients with heart failure, defined as heart failure symptoms NYHA II-III or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <50%. Results: This analysis included 798 patients (300 (37.6%) female, median age 71.0 [64.0, 76.0] years, 785 with known LVEF). The majority of patients (n=442) had HFpEF (LVEF≥50%; mean LVEF 61% ± 6.3%), the others had heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (n=211; LVEF40-49%; mean LVEF 44% ± 2.9%) or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (n=132; LVEF<40%; mean LVEF 31% ± 5.5%). Over the 5.1-year median follow-up, the composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, stroke or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure or for acute coronary syndrome occurred less often in patients randomized to ERC (94/396; 5.7 per 100 patient-years) compared with patients randomized to UC (130/402; 7.9 per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio 0.74 [0.56-0.97], p=0.03), not altered by heart failure status (interaction p-value=0.63). The primary safety outcome (death, stroke, or serious adverse events related to rhythm control therapy) occurred in 71/396 (17.9%) heart failure patients randomized to ERC and in 87/402 (21.6%) heart failure patients randomized to UC (hazard ratio 0.85 [0.62-1.17], p=0.33). LV ejection fraction improved in both groups (LVEF change at two years: ERC 5.3%±11.6%, UC 4.9%±11.6%, p=0.43). ERC also improved the composite outcome of death or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure. Conclusions: Rhythm control therapy conveys clinical benefit when initiated within one year of diagnosing atrial fibrillation in patients with signs or symptoms of heart failure. Clinical Trial Registration: Unique Identifiers: ISRCTN04708680, NCT01288352, EudraCT2010-021258-20, Study web site www.easttrial.org; URLs: www.controlled-trials.com; https://clinicaltrials.gov; https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu

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Aims  There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. Methods and results  In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11–1.22, P &lt; 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. Conclusions  In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.