There is substantial interest in stopping and reversing the effects of subsidence in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) where organic soils predominate. Also, the passage of California Assembly Bill 32 in 2006 created the potential to trade credits for carbon sequestered in wetlands on subsided Delta islands. The primary purpose of the work described here was to estimate future vertical accretion and understand processes that affect vertical accretion and carbon sequestration in impounded marshes on subsided Delta islands. Using a cohort-accounting model, we simulated vertical accretion from 4,700 calibrated years before present (BP) at a wetland area located within Franks Tract State Recreation Area (lat 38.059, long −121.611, hereafter, "Franks Wetland")-a small, relatively undisturbed marsh island-and at the Twitchell Island subsidencereversal demonstration project since 1997. We used physical and chemical data collected during the study as well as literature values for model inputs. Model results compared favorably with measured rates of vertical accretion, mass of carbon sequestered, bulk density and organic matter content.From 4,700 to model-estimated 350 years BP, the simulated rate of vertical accretion at Franks Wetland averaged about 0.12 cm yr -1 , which is within the range of rates in tidal wetlands worldwide. Our model results indicate that large sediment inputs during the last 150 to 200 years resulted in a higher accretion rate of 0.3 cm yr -1 . On Twitchell Island, greater organic inputs resulted in average vertical accretion rates as high as 9.2 cm yr -1 . Future simulations indicate that the managed impounded marsh will accrete highly organic material at rates of about 3 cm yr -1 . Model results coupled with GIS analysis indicate that large areas of the periphery of the Delta, if impounded and converted to freshwater marsh, could be restored to tidal elevations within 50 to 100 years. Most of the central Delta would require 50 to 250 years to be restored to projected mean sea level. A large portion of the western Delta could be restored to mean sea level within 50 to 150 years (large areas on Sherman, Jersey, and Bethel islands, and small areas on Bradford, Twitchell, and Brannan islands, and Webb Tract). We estimated that long-term carbon sequestration rates for impounded marshes such as the Twitchell Island demonstration ponds will range from 12 to 15 metric tons carbon ha -1 yr -1 . Creation of impounded marshes on Delta islands can substantially benefit levee stability as demonstrated by cumulative force and hydraulic gradient calculations.1 HydroFocus, Inc., Davis, CA USA 2 U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center Sacramento, CA USA * Corresponding author: sdeverel@hydrofocus.com SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY & WATERSHED SCIENCE 2 INTRODUCTIONThe 300,000-ha Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is a critical natural resource, important agricultural region and the hub for California's water supply. Within an area of about 81,000 ha in the central Delta, an estimated 4.5 billion ...

We quantified the greenhouse-gas (GHG) emission and economic implications of alternative crop and wetland mosaics on a Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta island: Staten Island. Using existing GHG fluxes measurements for the Delta and biogeochemical models, we estimated GHG emissions for a range of scenarios, including the status quo, modified groundwater management, and incorporating rice and managed wetlands. For current land uses, emissions were predicted to vary greatly (48,000 to 105,000 t CO 2 -e yr -1 ) with varying groundwater depth. GHG emissions were highest when water depth was 120 cm, the typical depth for a Delta island, and lowest if water table depth was shallowest (60 cm). In the alternate land-use scenarios, we simulated wetlands and rice cultivation in areas of highest organic-matter soils, greatest subsidence, and GHG emissions. For each scenario, we analyzed economic implications for the land-owner by determining profit changes relative to the status quo. We spatially assigned areas for rice and wetlands, and then allowed the Delta Agricultural Production (DAP) model to optimize the allocation of other crops to maximize profit. The scenario that included wetlands decreased profits 79% relative to the status quo but reduced GHG emissions by 43,000 t CO 2 -e yr -1 (57% reduction). When mixtures of rice and wetlands were introduced, farm profits decreased 16%, and the GHG emission reduction was 33,000 t CO 2 -e yr -1 (44% reduction). When rice was cultivated on 38% of the island, profit increased 12% and emissions were 22,000 t CO 2 -e yr -1 lower than baseline emissions (30% reduction). Conversion to a mosaic of wetlands and crops including rice could substantially reduce overall GHG emissions of cultivated lands in the Delta without greatly affecting profitability.

We used available data to estimate changes in land use and wet, non-farmable, and marginally farmable (WNMF) areas in the Delta from 1984 to 2012, and developed a conceptual model for processes that affect the changes observed. We analyzed aerial photography, groundwater levels, land-surface elevation data, well and boring logs, and surface water elevations. We used estimates for sea level rise and future subsidence to assess future vulnerability for the development of WNMF areas. The cumulative WNMF area increased linearly about 10-fold, from about 274 hectares (ha) in 1984 to about 2,800 ha in 2012. Moreover, several islands have experienced land use changes associated with reduced ability to drain the land. These have occurred primarily in the western and central Delta where organic soils have thinned; there are thin underlying mud deposits, and drainage ditches have not been maintained. Subsidence is the key process that will contribute to future increased likelihood of WNMF areas by reducing the thickness of organic soils and increasing hydraulic gradients and seepage onto the islands. To a lesser extent, sea level rise will also contribute to increased seepage onto islands by increasing groundwater levels in the aquifer under the organic soil and tidal mud, and increasing the hydraulic gradient onto islands from adjacent channels. WNMF areas develop from increased seepage under levees, which is caused by changing flow paths as organic soil thickness has decreased. This process is exacerbated by thin tidal mud deposits. Based primarily on projected reduced organic soil thickness and land-surface elevations, we delineated an additional area of about 3,450 ha that will be vulnerable to reduced arability and increased wetness by 2050.

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