Abstract. Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO 2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.

Tel:Tel. +44 (0) 44The zonal averages from each of the eight models ( Fig. 1) 87( Fig. 3a). Proxy-based Pliocene SAT anomalies display a similar trend for the temperate and 88 polar zones of the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 3b) 133 Conclusion and Implication 134Our DMC identifies a cold bias in models in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly north of 30 135 °N) demonstrating that, given the boundary conditions we have applied, none of the models 136 used in this study reproduce the magnitude of northern hemisphere high-latitude warming 137 exhibited in this proxy-dataset (Fig. 3c). A tentative data model mismatch may also be evident in 138 the tropical zone where modelled Pliocene SATs appear to be too high, however this is limited 139 by data availability. 140Before drawing any conclusions with regard to the ability of climate models to reproduce the 141 Pliocene, the potential causes of mismatches between palaeo-data and -models must be fully 142 understood. Our DMC has identified regions (i.e. northern Russia, North Alaska and northeast 143 Australia) where our data model mismatch is apparent when considering bioclimatic range (Fig. 144 3d), temporal variability (Fig. 3e) and even a combination of both factors (Fig. 3f). We have 145 qualitatively assessed these sites as 'medium' to 'very high confidence'. The underlying reasons 146 for these large DMC mismatches are still unknown. 147Our DMC results also demonstrate that at many localities the spread in model-predicted SAT 148 anomalies, from the model ensemble, is sufficiently large to cause an overlap with the available 149 range of proxy-derived SAT anomalies (highlighted by the purple squares in Fig. 3g). At these 193Acknowledgements 194

Abstract. The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Abstract. In this manuscript we describe the experimental procedure employed at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany in the preparation of the simulations for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We present a description of the utilized Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) and document the procedures that we applied to transfer the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project mid-Pliocene reconstruction into model forcing fields. The model setup and spin-up procedure are described for both the paleo-and preindustrial (PI) time slices of PlioMIP experiments 1 and 2, and general results that depict the performance of our model setup for midPliocene conditions are presented. The mid-Pliocene, as simulated with our COSMOS setup and PRISM boundary conditions, is both warmer and wetter in the global mean than the PI. The globally averaged annual mean surface air temperature in the mid-Pliocene standalone atmosphere (fully coupled atmosphere-ocean) simulation is 17.35 • C (17.82 • C), which implies a warming of 2.23 • C (3.40 • C) relative to the respective PI control simulation.

The animal species depicted in the rock art of Shuwaymis, Saudi Arabia, provide a record of Holocene climatic changes, as seen by the engravers. Of 1903 animal engravings, 1514 contained sufficient detail to allow identification with confidence. In addition, the stratigraphy of the engravings and the depiction of domesticates provide a broad chronological framework that allows a division into images created during the Holocene humid phase and animals represented after the onset of desert conditions. Despite the large sample size, only 16 animal species could be identified, which represents an extraordinarily narrow species spectrum. Comparison with the scarce faunal record of the Arabian Peninsula shows that all larger animals that are thought to have been present in the area were also depicted in the rock art. The contemporaneous presence of at least four large carnivores during the Holocene humid phase suggests that prey animals were abundant, and that the landscape consisted of a mosaic of habitats, potentially with thicker vegetation along the water courses of the wadis and more open vegetation in the landscape around them. Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) climate simulations show that Shuwaymis was at the northern edge of the African Summer Monsoon rainfall regime. It is therefore possible that Shuwaymis was ecologically connected with southwestern Arabia, and that an arid barrier remained in place to the north, restricting the dispersal of Levantine species into Arabia.

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a co-ordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights the potential for models to underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Sensitivity tests exploring the "known unknowns" in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high-latitudes are also essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO₂ (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), suggest that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a best estimate of 1.5

Abstract. A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.