Background:The National Academies recommended risk assessments redefine the traditional noncancer Reference Dose (RfD) as a probabilistically derived risk-specific dose, a framework for which was recently developed by the World Health Organization (WHO).Objectives:Our aim was to assess the feasibility and implications of replacing traditional RfDs with probabilistic estimates of the human dose associated with an effect magnitude M and population incidence I (HDMnormalI).Methods:We created a comprehensive, curated database of RfDs derived from animal data and developed a standardized, automated, web-accessible probabilistic dose–response workflow implementing the WHO framework.Results:We identified 1,464 RfDs and associated endpoints, representing 608 chemicals across many types of effects. Applying our standardized workflow resulted in 1,522 HDMnormalI values. Traditional RfDs are generally within an order of magnitude of the HDMnormalI lower confidence bound for I=1% and M values commonly used for benchmark doses. The greatest contributor to uncertainty was lack of benchmark dose estimates, followed by uncertainty in the extent of human variability. Exposure at the traditional RfD frequently implies an upper 95% confidence bound of several percent of the population affected. Whether such incidences are considered acceptable is likely to vary by chemical and risk context, especially given the wide range of severity of the associated effects, from clinical chemistry to mortality.Conclusions:Overall, replacing RfDs with HDMnormalI estimates can provide a more consistent, scientifically rigorous, and transparent basis for risk management decisions, as well as support additional decision contexts such as economic benefit–cost analysis, risk–risk tradeoffs, life-cycle impact analysis, and emergency response. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3368
Value of statistical life, Cancer risk, Risk trade-off, Latency, D81, I18, J17,
This article explores two problems analysts face in determining how to estimate values for children's health and safety risk reductions. The first addresses the question: Do willingness-to-pay estimates for health risk changes differ across children and adults and, if so, how? To answer this question, the article first examines the potential effects of age and risk preferences on willingness to pay. A summary of the literature reporting empirical evidence of differences between willingness to pay for adult health and safety risk reductions and willingness to pay for health and safety risk reductions in children is also provided. The second dimension of the problem is a more fundamental issue: Whose perspective is relevant when valuing children's health effects-society's, children's, adults-as-children, or parents'? Each perspective is considered, followed ultimately by the conclusion that adopting a parental perspective through an intrahousehold allocation model seems closest to meeting the needs of the estimation problem at hand. A policy example in which the choice of perspective affects the outcome of a regulatory benefit-cost analysis rounds out the article and emphasizes the importance of perspective.
One Sentence Abstract: Economic benefits analysis for environmental policy can be improved by incorporating current scientific approaches for evaluating health risks.
Reducing the excess nutrient and sediment pollution that is damaging habitat and diminishing recreational experiences in coastal estuaries requires actions by people and communities that are within the boundaries of the watershed but may be far from the resource itself, thus complicating efforts to understand tradeoffs associated with pollution control measures. Such is the case with the Chesapeake Bay, one of the most iconic water resources in the United States. All seven states containing part of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed were required under the Clean Water Act to submit detailed plans to achieve nutrient and sediment pollution reductions. The implementation plans provide information on the location and type of management practices making it possible to project not only water quality improvements in the Chesapeake Bay but also improvements in freshwater lakes throughout the watershed, which provide important ancillary benefits to people bearing the cost of reducing pollution to the Bay but unlikely to benefit directly. This paper reports the results of a benefits study that links the forecasted water quality improvements to ecological endpoints and administers a stated preference survey to estimate use and nonuse value for aesthetic and ecological improvements in the Chesapeake Bay and watershed lakes. Our results show that ancillary benefits and nonuse values account for a substantial proportion of total willingness to pay and would have a significant impact on the net benefits of pollution reduction programs.
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