[1] Oscillations in stress, such as those created by earthquakes, can increase permeability and fluid mobility in geologic media. In natural systems, strain amplitudes as small as 10À6 can increase discharge in streams and springs, change the water level in wells, and enhance production from petroleum reservoirs. Enhanced permeability typically recovers to prestimulated values over a period of months to years. Mechanisms that can change permeability at such small stresses include unblocking pores, either by breaking up permeability-limiting colloidal deposits or by mobilizing droplets and bubbles trapped in pores by capillary forces. The recovery time over which permeability returns to the prestimulated value is governed by the time to reblock pores, or for geochemical processes to seal pores. Monitoring permeability in geothermal systems where there is abundant seismicity, and the response of flow to local and regional earthquakes, would help test some of the proposed mechanisms and identify controls on permeability and its evolution.

Quantitative interpretation of the tidal response of water levels measured in wells has long been made either with a model for perfectly confined aquifers or with a model for purely unconfined aquifers. However, many aquifers may be neither totally confined nor purely unconfined at the frequencies of tidal loading but behave somewhere between the two end‐members. Here we present a more general model for the tidal response of groundwater in aquifers with both horizontal flow and vertical leakage. The model has three independent parameters: the transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) of the aquifer and the specific leakage (K′/b′) of the leaking aquitard, where K′ and b′ are the hydraulic conductivity and the thickness of the aquitard, respectively. If T and S are known independently, this model may be used to estimate aquitard leakage from the phase shift and amplitude ratio of water level in wells obtained from tidal analysis. We apply the model to interpret the tidal response of water level in a US Geological Survey (USGS) deep monitoring well installed in the Arbuckle aquifer in Oklahoma, into which massive amount of wastewater coproduced from hydrocarbon exploration has been injected. The analysis shows that the Arbuckle aquifer is leaking significantly at this site. We suggest that the present method may be effective and economical for monitoring leakage in groundwater systems, which bears on the safety of water resources, the security of underground waste repositories, and the outflow of wastewater during deep injection and hydrocarbon extraction.

Earthquake-induced increases in streamflow, producing ϳ0.7 km 3 of total excess water, were documented after the 1999 (M w ‫؍‬ 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan. Analysis of stream gauge data and well records suggests that the excess water originated in the mountains. We propose that the extensive high-angle fractures formed during the earthquake allow rapid release of water from mountains and that mountains in tectonically active areas may be repeatedly flushed by meteoric water at time intervals comparable to the recurrence time of large earthquakes.

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This paper describes the water level variations in wells YuZ-5 and E-1 in Kamchatka during the Zhupanovsky earthquake that occurred on January 30, 2016 (Mw=7.2, Н=180 km). The distances from the Zhupanovsky earthquake epicenter to wells E-1 and YuZ-5 were 70 and 80 km, respectively. In well YuZ-5, the water level raised by 9.4 cm during 45 minutes after the seismic wave arrival. This effect was caused by a combination of a co-seismic rise in the water level due to the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks during fracturing in the earthquake source and an impulse increase in the fluid pressure near the wellbore during the seismic shocks. We estimated the amplitude of the coseismic water level increase (h=7.3 cm) and the strain value resulting from the volumetric compression of the water-bearing rocks, which is consistent with the estimated value of the coseismic volumetric deformation in the area of the well at the depth of 500m: D1 = -4.510 -8 . This estimation was based on the model of the dislocation source in the homogeneous isotropic elastic half-space with the parameters of the Zhupanovsky earthquake focal mechanism. After the earthquake, the water level dropped for three months at an amplitude of about ~40 cm. In order to estimate the radius of the well sensitivity to the pressure drop source, we used the model of water level lowering that followed the pressure drop in the aquifer at a distance to the well as a result of the improved filtration properties of the water-bearing rocks after the seismic shocks. The estimated radius of the well sensitivity, R is 450 m. For 3.5 months before the Zhupanovsky earthquake, ~20 cm increase in the water level was observed, which is anomalous in comparison with the average seasonal variations of the water level, as shown by the long-term observations. In our opinion, such a rise in the water level occurred in the process of the earthquake preparation, and can thus be viewed as its precursor. In well E-1, a sequence of water level changes manifested a hydrogeodynamic precursor: the water level dropped at an increased rate for 21 days before the earthquake, and raised at an amplitude of 3.7 cm during one month after the earthquake. The hydrogeodynamic precursor detected in real time gave grounds for forecasting a highly probable strong earthquake at a distance of up to 350 km from wells E-1 within a month. This forecast was reported to the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on January 21, 2016. The Zhupanovsky earthquake occurred on January 30, 2016, and its magnitude, time and location correlated with the prediction. The case of this earthquake shows that the Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center 'Geophysical Survey of RAS' has the system of water level observations and data processing, which is capable of diagnosing (close to real time and retrospectively) different types of hydrogeoseismic variations in the water level in wells in case of strong seismic events, and detecting the hydrogeodynamic precursors of strong earthquak...

Hydrologic responses to earthquakes, including liquefaction, changes in stream and spring discharge, changes in the properties of groundwater such as geochemistry, temperature and turbidity, changes in the water level in wells, and the eruption of mud volcanoes, have been documented for thousands of years. Except for some water-level changes in the near field which can be explained by poroelastic responses to static stress changes, most hydrologic responses, both within and beyond the near field, can only be explained by the dynamic responses associated with seismic waves. For these responses, the seismic energy density e may be used as a general metric to relate and compare the various hydrologic responses. We show that liquefaction, eruption of mud volcanoes and increases in streamflow are bounded by e $ 10 )1 J m )3 ; temperature changes in hot springs are bounded by e $ 10 )2 J m )3 ; most sustained groundwater changes are bounded by e $ 10 )3 J m )3 ; geysers and triggered seismicity may respond to seismic energy density as small as 10 )3 and 10 )4 J m )3 , respectively. Comparing the threshold energy densities with published laboratory measurements, we show that undrained consolidation induced by dynamic stresses can explain liquefaction only in the near field, but not beyond the near field. We propose that in the intermediate field and far field, most responses are triggered by changes in permeability that in turn are a response to the cyclic deformation and oscillatory fluid flow. Published laboratory measurements confirm that changes in flow and time-varying stresses can change permeability, inducing both increases and decreases. Field measurements in wells also indicate that permeability can be changed by earthquakes in the intermediate field and far field. Further work, in particular field monitoring and measurements, are needed to assess the generality of permeability changes in explaining far-field hydrologic responses to earthquakes.

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[1] Using a new empirical relation among earthquake magnitude, seismic energy density and hypocentral distance, we show that the documented water level changes during earthquakes occur across seven orders of magnitude of seismic energy density. Combining this relation with a global data set for water level changes, new data from Taiwan, and laboratory data for saturated sediments under cyclic loading, we show that at least two mechanisms may be important for inducing water level changes. Undrained volumetric change may be the dominant mechanism to cause the abrupt decrease or increase of water level documented in the near field, while an earthquake-enhanced permeability may account for the more gradual and sustained water level changes documented in the intermediate field.