Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north-eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North-West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 °C in early winter temperature in the north-eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south-western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re-evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population-level consequences.

Aim Species are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990–2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. Location Europe. Methods We used site‐specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north‐eastern, central and south‐western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. Results The Smew wintering distribution shifted north‐eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north‐eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north‐eastern and south‐western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north‐eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusions SPAs accommodated climate‐driven abundance changes in the north‐eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site‐safeguard networks for this and other species.

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The ecological impacts of increasing populations of deer (Cervidae) in Europe and North America are becoming more widespread and pronounced. Within Britain, it has been suggested that declines in several woodland bird species, particularly those dependent on dense understorey vegetation, may be at least partly due to these effects. Here we present experimental evidence of the effects of deer browsing on the fine‐scale habitat selection and habitat use by a bird species in Europe. The study was conducted in a wood in eastern England where a decrease in Common Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos numbers has coincided with a large increase in deer numbers. Eight woodland plots were cut to produce young coppice regrowth (a favoured habitat for Nightingales). Deer were excluded from half of each plot using steel fences, thus creating eight experimental pairs of exclosures (unbrowsed) and controls (browsed). Radiotelemetry and territory mapping of male Nightingales showed strong selection of exclosures. The density of territories was 15 times greater in the exclosures than in grazed controls. Selection for exclosures was significant for the minimum convex polygon, 95% kernel and 50% core home‐ranges used by seven radiotracked males. Tracked birds spent 69% of their time in the 6% of the study area protected from deer. Intensified browsing by deer influenced local settlement patterns of Nightingales, supporting the conclusion that increased deer populations are likely to have contributed to declines of Nightingales in Britain, and potentially those of other bird species dependent on dense understorey.

Using an exclosure experiment in managed woodland in eastern England, we examined species and guild responses to vegetation growth and its modification by deer herbivory, contrasting winter and the breeding season over 4 years. Species and guild responses, in terms of seasonal presence recorded by multiple point counts, were examined using generalized linear mixed models. Several guilds or migrant species responded positively to deer exclusion and none responded negatively. The shrub-layer foraging guild was recorded less frequently in older and browsed vegetation, in both winter and spring. Exclusion of deer also increased the occurrence of ground-foraging species in both seasons, although these species showed no strong response to vegetation age. The canopy-foraging guild was unaffected by deer exclusion or vegetation age in either season. There was seasonal variation in the responses of some individual resident species, including a significantly lower occurrence of Eurasian Wren Troglodytes troglodytes and European Robin Erithacus rubecula in browsed vegetation in winter, but no effect of browsing on those species in spring. Ordinations of bird assemblage compositions also revealed seasonal differences in response to gradients of vegetation structure generated by canopy-closure and exclusion of deer. Positive impacts of deer exclusion in winter are probably linked to reduced thermal cover and predator protection afforded by browsed vegetation, whereas species that responded positively in spring were also dependent on a dense understorey for nesting. The effects on birds of vegetation development and its modification by herbivores extend beyond breeding assemblages, with different mechanisms implicated and different species affected in winter

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