Based on cellular automata (CA), the diffusion of communication products, namely the mobile phone (MP) and the landline telephone (LT), were modeled and simulated. The ordinary least squares (OLS) procedure and nonlinear regression method were carried out to estimate the diffusion parameters. The predicted results were compared with the actual data. It is found that: (1) the diffusion processes of mobile phone and landline telephone were successfully examined using cellular automata method, (2) the predicted results of mobile phone and landline telephone show four stages of the product life cycle, (3) the present situation of mobile phones in China is at the fast growth stage and the present situation of landline telephone is at the maturity stage, (4) the market of mobile communication is growing fast and has a brighter future and the landline communication market is meeting great challenges. The future competition will be more serious between the mobile communication and the landline communication. Both of them can benefit from introduction of advanced technology and new services because such a strategy has the potential to convert some consumers of one of communications into another communications. As for the whole communications, the innovation of technology and services will be generated and introduced into the industry of communications to drive the market.
The goal of this article is to offer new theoretical propositions to advance consumer behavior diffusion research and to provide a cellular automata method for diffusion modeling. We construct a cellular automata model (CAD) that captures the consumer learning mechanism in the purchase behavior diffusion which result in the new product diffusion. The results show that the cellular automata model successfully examined the purchase behavior diffusion on different products both in China and America to compare consumer behavior in different segmentation market for implication on new product marketing.
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