Research on Communication Products Diffusion in China Using Cellular Automata

Abstract

Based on cellular automata (CA), the diffusion of communication products, namely the mobile phone (MP) and the landline telephone (LT), were modeled and simulated. The ordinary least squares (OLS) procedure and nonlinear regression method were carried out to estimate the diffusion parameters. The predicted results were compared with the actual data. It is found that: (1) the diffusion processes of mobile phone and landline telephone were successfully examined using cellular automata method, (2) the predicted results of mobile phone and landline telephone show four stages of the product life cycle, (3) the present situation of mobile phones in China is at the fast growth stage and the present situation of landline telephone is at the maturity stage, (4) the market of mobile communication is growing fast and has a brighter future and the landline communication market is meeting great challenges. The future competition will be more serious between the mobile communication and the landline communication. Both of them can benefit from introduction of advanced technology and new services because such a strategy has the potential to convert some consumers of one of communications into another communications. As for the whole communications, the innovation of technology and services will be generated and introduced into the industry of communications to drive the market.

The Study Of Properties Of The Word Of Mouth Marketing Using Cellular Automata

“…Defining the cellular automaton this way, we usually take into account effects of interpersonal influence and possibility of agent's movement. Possibility of consumer's movement to the lattice, distinguishes the proposed model of the known models of marketing such as [7,16,18] and [19][20][21]. Consumer mobility is an important assumption, because by changing place in lattice the actual consumer behaviour can be mapped, which may yet in situations of uncertainty discuss its decision with another group of people (this may mean first consultation in the family, then in a group of friends and / or use of the Internet for example).…”