New data linkages between censuses show that migration flows between Indian reserves and off-reserve areas from 2006 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2016 resulted in negative net migration for Indian reserves, meaning that—overall—more people left Indian reserves than entered them. These results differ from the portrait shown by the retrospective information from the 2011 and 2016 censuses, which indicates positive net migration for Indian reserves. A comparison of the information in the two sources revealed two types of inconsistencies that contributed to the observed differences: (1) inconsistencies in migrant status, and (2) inconsistencies in the origin location of migrants, i.e., the retrospective information about a migrant’s place of residence 5 years earlier does not match the place where the migrant was enumerated in the previous census. Results from this paper suggest that there are limitations to using retrospective information on the place of residence 5 years prior to a census to derive estimates of internal migration flows for small geographic areas, such as Indian reserves. New data linkages are a source of information that can be used to validate and improve these estimates, as well as to derive alternative estimates. However, data linkages also have limitations and require careful preparation before use, particularly when it comes to calculating weights to accurately account for unlinked records.
We analyze the direct and indirect demographic contribution of immigration to the foreign‐origin composition of the Canadian population according to various projection scenarios over a century, from 2006 to 2106. More specifically, we use Statistics Canada's Demosim microsimulation model to assess the long‐term sensitivity to immigration levels and the frequency of mixed unions of the share of immigrants in Canada and of persons who have at least one ancestor who arrived after 2006. The results of the simulations show that the population renewal process through immigration happens at a fast pace in a high immigration and low fertility country such as Canada. Under the scenarios developed, immigrants who entered after 2006 and their descendants could form the majority of the population by 2058 at the earliest and by 2079 at the latest and could represent between 62 percent and 88 percent in 2106. They also show that mixed unions are a key element of the speed at which the changes are likely to occur in the long run.
Résumé Cet article présente les résultats d’une analyse de la mobilité ethnique intragénérationnelle des Autochtones au moyen d’une source de données qui permet, pour la première fois au Canada, une estimation directe du phénomène : l’appariement entre les recensements de la population de 2001 et 2006. La mobilité ethnique intragénérationnelle, en d’autres termes les changements de déclaration de l’identité autochtone au cours de la vie, a contribué de manière importante à l’accroissement des populations métisses et indiennes de l’Amérique du Nord vivant hors des réserves indiennes au cours des dernières décennies. Cependant, les estimations publiées jusqu’ici reposant toutes sur des mesures indirectes, elles ne permettaient qu’une connaissance limitée des caractéristiques qui y sont liées. L’analyse, descriptive puis multivariée, montre que les gains de population que connaissent les Autochtones en raison de la mobilité ethnique résultent en réalité de flux multidirectionnels liés à certaines caractéristiques clés, comme le fait d’avoir des origines ethniques mixtes. L’article explore également les effets de la mobilité ethnique sur la composition sociodémographique des populations autochtones, leur répartition géographique étant notamment modifiée suite aux changements qui touchent la déclaration de l’identité aux recensements.
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