To overcome the longstanding difficulties of testing macrosociological theories empirically, a new strategy based on computer simulations is proposed. The computer model provides a means for testing the empirical adequacy of a theory in its entirety, taking into account all relevant interactions between variables. The authors describe the approach and then apply it to a theory of patterned deviance. Fifteen sets of data were tested with the original model. Nine cases of violation of formal norms and five of informal norms were reproduced successfully. One data set could not be reproduced due to structural limitations of the model. The strategy is then used in simulated experiments to test alternative hypotheses for some of the data sets. The theory's range of applicability is discussed, and directions for further research with this strategy are suggested.
Social structures and processes are generally described and analyzed in terms of verbal concepts. To simulate such phenomena in system dynamics models, the concepts must first be transformed into quantifiable variables. Useful intermediate steps in this process are specific but transferable nominal definitions, based on meaning analysis of the concepts. For modeling purposes, a well‐defined variable should be reliable and realistic, and have face validity. The relevance and importance of these criteria, long recognized in sociological research, are documented and illustrated with examples drawn from recently published work on a model of normative systems in industrialized societies.
Following a long period of increase, the number of drug users in the United States has decreased sharply during the last decade. As it is not clear what caused the change, advocates of different policies are likely to claim credit. This study, simulating major segments of the drug system with a computer model of a sociological theory of patterned deviance, shows that the theory fits the case of drug abuse. Applying the theory to the reported trends, it is concluded that enforcement was not the cause of the reversal, education may well have been a facilitating factor, but there must have been some exogenous force, such as the AIDS scare of the early 1980s, to have triggered the abrupt change.
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