Computer Simulations and Empirical Testing of Sociological Theory

Jacobsen, Chanoch; Bronson, Richard

doi:10.1177/0049124195023004004

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The data sets came from published sources, primarily government statistics and documents. Jacobsen and Bronson (1995), using the same strategy, examined a theory of patterned deviance (widespread violation of accepted norms by ordinary people, not criminal deviates). They tested 15 sets of data, again acquired from government documents.…”

Section: Sociological Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Longitudinal Organizational Research and the Third Scientific Discipline

Hunt

Ropo

2003

Group & Organization Management

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Longitudinal research in organizations has gained momentum to the point where it may now be considered to reflect the tenor of the times, or zeitgeist, for organizational studies. An important part of that longitudinal research is what, borrowing and extending from the work of Ilgen and Hulin, is called the third scientific discipline. That discipline consists of numerous perspectives focusing on various aspects of chaos/complexity, dynamic systems, and processual approaches. These approaches are being increasingly applied across various organizational research fields such as social and industrial/organizational psychology and small-group and leadership studies. A dynamic systems approach is turned on itself to analyze the scientific development of thirddiscipline approaches. Although the jury is still out, these approaches appear to be making increasingly strong contributions to the longitudinal zeitgeist and to organizational studies in general.

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Section: Sociological Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Longitudinal Organizational Research and the Third Scientific Discipline

Hunt

Ropo

2003

Group & Organization Management

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“…For an extended discussion of the advantages of computer modelling of theories, see Hanneman (1988). For a recent concrete example, see Jacobsen and Bronson (1995). 1 1.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

ICONS, STRAW MEN AND PRECISION: Reflections on Demographic Theories of Fertility Decline

Burch¹

1995

Sociological Quarterly

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Despite the passage of half a century since 'demographic transition theory' first appeared in English-language demographic literature, many would agree that relatively little progress has been made toward refinement and testing of leading theoretical ideas, or towards theoretical consensus. There has rather been a proliferation of untested theories, partially overlapping and often associated with one individual, discipline, or school of thought. It is argued here that lack of clarity, precision and rigor in the statement, criticism, and use of theories of fertility decline is a major cause of the lack of theoretical progress. The greater use of tools for the computer modeling of complex dynamic systems is seen as a partial remedy. Emphasis is on the use of computer modeling (simulation) as a theoretical tool.The current status of demographic theories of fertility decline leaves something to be desired. "Classic" transition theory has been "reconsidered," "restated" (more than once), and recently rejected as an intellectual enterprise allegedly driven by political rather than scientific concerns and informed by outdated views of social science methodology (Szreter, 1993). Micro-economic ("demand") theories of fertility have fallen victim to "iconoclasm" at the hands of Cleland and Wilson (1987), who find ideational "rather than" economic/structural factors to be "the fundamental force behind fertility decline" (p.1). Indeed, theoretical writing has tended toward polarization between those who attribute fertility decline largely to economic factors and those who attribute it largely to cultural factors (Johansson 1993), a polarization epitomized by the title (if not the substance) of Hammel's recent paper (1993) -

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“…Bibliometric techniques could be used to determine how long a research problem ("puzzle") has gone unsolved and gauge the number of researchers working on it, to yield a measure of the difficulty of puzzles. Donovan et al (1988), and Jacobsen and Bronson (1995) discuss the practical difficulties involved in such empirical tests; Rappa and Debackere (1993) use survey and bibliometric tools to shed light on the demographics and attitudes of scientists in several fields, illustrating how the constructs in the model might be measured.…”

Section: Discussion: Guru Dynamics and Management Fadsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Dependence, Competition, and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution

Sterman

Wittenberg

1999

Organization Science

139

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What is the relative importance of structural versus contextual forces in the birth and death of scientific theories? We describe a formal dynamic model of the birth, evolution, and death of scientific paradigms based on Kuhn's Structure of Scientific Revolutions. The model represents scientific activity as a changing set of coupled institutions; a simulated ecology of interacting paradigms in which the creation of new theories is stochastic and endogenous. The model captures the sociological dynamics of paradigms as they compete against one another for members, solve puzzles, and recognize anomalies. We use sensitivity tests and regression to examine the role of intrinsic versus contextual factors in determining paradigm success. We find that situational factors attending the birth of a paradigm largely determine its probability of rising to dominance, while the intrinsic explanatory power of a paradigm is only weakly related to the likelihood of success. For those paradigms surviving the emergence phase, greater explanatory power is significantly related to longevity. However, the relationship between a paradigm's "strength" and the duration of normal science is also contingent on the competitive environment during the emergence phase. Analysis of the model shows the dynamics of competition and succession among paradigms to be conditioned by many positive feedback loops. These self-reinforcing processes amplify intrinsically unobservable microlevel perturbations in the environment-the local conditions of science, society, and self faced by the creators of a new theory-until they reach macroscopic significance. Such path dependent dynamics are the hallmark of self-organizing evolutionary systems. We consider the implications of these results for the rise and fall of new ideas in contexts outside the natural sciences such as management fads.

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Computer Simulations and Empirical Testing of Sociological Theory

Cited by 22 publications

References 18 publications

Longitudinal Organizational Research and the Third Scientific Discipline

Longitudinal Organizational Research and the Third Scientific Discipline

ICONS, STRAW MEN AND PRECISION: Reflections on Demographic Theories of Fertility Decline

Path Dependence, Competition, and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution

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