Sudden cardiac death from arrhythmia is a major cause of mortality worldwide. In this study, we developed a novel deep learning (DL) approach that blends neural networks and survival analysis to predict patient-specific survival curves from contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance images and clinical covariates for patients with ischemic heart disease. The DL-predicted survival curves offer accurate predictions at times up to 10 years and allow for estimation of uncertainty in predictions. The performance of this learning architecture was evaluated on multi-center internal validation data and tested on an independent test set, achieving concordance indexes of 0.83 and 0.74 and 10-year integrated Brier scores of 0.12 and 0.14. We demonstrate that our DL approach, with only raw cardiac images as input, outperforms standard survival models constructed using clinical covariates. This technology has the potential to transform clinical decision-making by offering accurate and generalizable predictions of patient-specific survival probabilities of arrhythmic death over time.
Deep learning (DL) has achieved promising performance in detecting common abnormalities from the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). However, diagnostic redundancy exists in the 12-lead ECG, which could impose a systematic overfitting on DL, causing poor generalization. We, therefore, hypothesized that finding an optimal lead subset of the 12-lead ECG to eliminate the redundancy would help improve the generalizability of DL-based models. In this study, we developed and evaluated a DL-based model that has a feature extraction stage, an ECG-lead subset selection stage and a decision-making stage to automatically interpret multiple common ECG abnormality types. The data analysed in this study consisted of 6877 12-lead ECG recordings from CPSC 2018 (labelled as normal rhythm or eight types of ECG abnormalities, split into training (approx. 80%), validation (approx. 10%) and test (approx. 10%) sets) and 3998 12-lead ECG recordings from PhysioNet/CinC 2020 (labelled as normal rhythm or four types of ECG abnormalities, used as external text set). The ECG-lead subset selection module was introduced within the proposed model to efficiently constrain model complexity. It detected an optimal 4-lead ECG subset consisting of leads II, aVR, V1 and V4. The proposed model using the optimal 4-lead subset significantly outperformed the model using the complete 12-lead ECG on the validation set and on the external test dataset. The results demonstrated that our proposed model successfully identified an optimal subset of 12-lead ECG; the resulting 4-lead ECG subset improves the generalizability of the DL model in ECG abnormality interpretation. This study provides an outlook on what channels are necessary to keep and which ones may be ignored when considering an automated detection system for cardiac ECG abnormalities.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advanced computation in cardiovascular physiology: new challenges and opportunities’.
The 3D coordinate system and measurement method established in this study can be applied to the standardization of orbital morphometry. The measurements obtained from normal Chinese adults may provide reference values for the morphology of intra-orbital structures.
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