In the context of global warming, agricultural production and social and economic development are significantly affected by drought. The future change of climate conditions is uncertain; thus, it is of great importance to clarify the aspects of drought in order to define local and regional drought adaptation strategies. In this study, the meteorological data from 1976 to 2005 was used as a historical reference, and nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling to meteorological stations from 2039 to 2089, were used as future climate data. Based on Penman–Monteith, the reference crop Evapotranspiration (ET0) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the reference crop in three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, under future climate conditions, were calculated. A non-parameter Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on temperature, precipitation, ET0, and SPEI to analyze the drought spatiotemporal distribution traits under upcoming climate scenarios. The results showed that, under future climate conditions, SPEI values in most areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai region would continuously increase year by year, and drought would be alleviated to some extent at the same pace. However, with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the emission scenarios, SPEI values continued to decline. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of severe drought was large. To sum up, in the future climate scenario, the degree of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region will be alleviated to some extent with the increase of rainfall, but with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration, the degree of drought will be further intensified, posing a huge challenge to agricultural water use in the region. This study provides a theoretical foundation for alleviating drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region in future climate scenarios.
In order to investigate the effects of typical anthropogenic concrete fragments on moisture infiltration and evaporation in urban soils, the effects of typical anthropogenic concrete fragments on wetting peak transport distance, cumulative infiltration, cumulative evaporation, evaporation rate, and soil profile moisture at four levels (0, 5%, 10%, and 20%) were investigated by indoor soil column experiments. The results showed that the presence of concrete fragments promoted the wetting peak transport distance and cumulative infiltration, and the promotion effect increased gradually with the increase of the ratio, but there was a threshold value, and the promotion effect was least when the ratio was 20%. When the evaporation period was 35 d, concrete fragment treatment can increase the cumulative evaporation and promote the evaporation of urban soil moisture; the promotion effect increases with the increase of the proportion, but there is a threshold value; when the proportion is 20%, the promotion effect is the smallest. The evaporation rate was consistent with the different stages of evaporation process during evaporation. The concrete fragment treatment reduced the time required for moisture to reach the same depth during infiltration; the moisture coefficient of variation of the concrete fragment treatment during evaporation showed a trend of decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing, which increased the uncertainty of moisture in the evaporation process. The model simulation results show that the models such as the power function, Kostiakov model, and Rose model fit well, and the coefficient of determination R 2 is greater than 0.99, among which the Kostiakov model fits best. The research results can provide a theoretical scientific basis for building an efficient ecological city.
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