Recruitment from seeds is among the most vulnerable stage for plants as global temperatures change. While germination is the means by which the vast majority of the world's flora regenerate naturally, a framework for accurately predicting which species are at greatest risk of germination failure during environmental perturbation is lacking. Taking a physiological approach, we assess how one family, the Cactaceae, may respond to global temperature change based on the thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype. We selected 55 cactus species from the Americas, all geo-referenced seed collections, reflecting the broad environmental envelope of the family across 70° of latitude and 3700 m of altitude. We then generated empirical data of the thermal germination response from which we estimated the minimum (T ), optimum (T ) and ceiling (T ) temperature for germination and the thermal time (θ ) for each species based on the linearity of germination rate with temperature. Species with the highest T and lowest T germinated fastest, and the interspecific sensitivity of the germination rate to temperature, as assessed through θ , varied tenfold. A left-skewed asymmetry in the germination rate with temperature was relatively common but the unimodal pattern typical of crop species failed for nearly half of the species due to insensitivity to temperature change at T . For 32 fully characterized species, seed thermal parameters correlated strongly with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the seed collection sites. By projecting the mean temperature of the wettest quarter under two climate change scenarios, we predict under the least conservative scenario (+3.7°C) that 25% of cactus species will have reduced germination performance, whilst the remainder will have an efficiency gain, by the end of the 21st century.

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Soil seed banks are essential elements of plant population dynamics, enabling species to maintain genetic variability, withstand periods of adversity and persist over time, including for cactus species. However knowledge of the soil seed bank in cacti is scanty. In this study, over a 5-year period we studied the seed bank dynamics, seedling emergence and nurse plant facilitation of Polaskia chende, an endemic columnar cactus of central Mexico. P. chende seeds were collected for a wild population in Puebla, Mexico. Freshly collected seeds were sown at 25 °C and 12-h photoperiod under white light, far-red light and darkness. The collected seeds were divided in two lots, the first was stored in the laboratory and the second was use to bury seeds in open areas and beneath a shrub canopy. Seeds were exhumed periodically over 5 years. At the same time seeds were sown in open areas and beneath shrub canopies; seedling emergence and survival were recorded over different periods of time for 5 years. The species forms long-term persistent soil seed banks. The timing of seedling emergence via germination in the field was regulated by interaction between light, temperature and soil moisture. Seeds entered secondary dormancy at specific times according to the expression of environmental factors, demonstrating irregular dormancy cycling. Seedling survival of P. chende was improved under Acacia constricta nurse plants. Finally, plant facilitation affected the soil seed bank dynamics as it promoted the formation of a soil seed bank, but not its persistence.

Thermal time models are useful to determine the thermal and temporal requirements for seed germination. This information may be used as a criterion for species distribution in projected scenarios of climate change, especially in threatened species like red cedar. The objectives of this work were to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seeds of Cedrela odorata and to predict the effect of increasing temperature in two scenarios of climate change. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures ranging from 5 ± 2 to 45 ± 2 °C. Germination rate was analyzed in order to calculate cardinal temperatures and thermal time. The time required for germination of 50% of population was estimated for the current climate, as well as under the A2 and B2 scenarios for the year 2050. The results showed that base, optimal and maximal temperatures were −0.5 ± 0.09, 38 ± 1.6 and 53.3 ± 2.1 °C, respectively. Thermal time (θ1(50)) was 132.74 ± 2.60 °Cd, which in the current climate scenario accumulates after 5.5 days. Under the A2 scenario using the English model, this time is shortened to 4.5 days, while under scenario B2, the time is only 10 hours shorter than the current scenario. Under the German model, the accumulation of thermal time occurs 10 and 6.5 hours sooner than in the current climate under the A2 and B2 models, respectively. The seeds showed a wide range of temperatures for germination, and according to the climate change scenarios, the thermal time accumulates over a shorter period, accelerating the germination of seeds in the understory. This is the first report of a threshold model for C. odorata, one of the most important forest species in tropical environments.

Swietenia macrophylla is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of S. macrophylla; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time θ150 needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.

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Temperature is the main factor that impacts germination and therefore the success of annual crops, such as chia (Salvia hispanica L.), whose seeds are known for their high nutritional value related to its oil. The effect of temperature on germination is related to cardinal-temperature concepts that describe the range of temperature over which seeds of a particular species can germinate. Therefore, in this study, in addition to calculated germinative parameters such as total germination and germination rate of S. hispanica seeds, the effectiveness of non-linear models for estimating the cardinal temperatures of chia seeds was also determined. We observed that germination of S. hispanica occurred in cold to moderate-high temperatures (10–35 °C), having an optimal range between 25 and 35 °C, with the highest GR and t50 at 30 °C. Temperatures higher than 35 °C significantly reduced germination. Output parameters of the different non-linear models showed that the response of chia germination to temperature was best explained by beta models (B). Cardinal temperatures calculated by the B1 model for chia germination were: 2.52 ± 6.82 °C for the base, 30.45 ± 0.32 °C for the optimum, and 48.58 ± 2.93 °C for the ceiling temperature.

The temperature reduces the viability and seed vigor; however, the effect of temperature on imbibition and fatty acid profile has not been studied. Chia (Salvia hispanica L.) seeds have a substantial quantity of oil, making them a potential study model for fatty acid metabolism. Therefore, we explore the effect of temperature (10, 20, and 30 °C) on chia seed imbibition, germination, and fatty acid profile by GC-MS. Imbibition FI occurs within the first hour in all the treatments; while FII and FIIend elapse with an hour of difference at 20 °C and 30 °C. The highest viability and germination rate were observed at 30 °C; while the highest concentrations of all fatty acids, except oleic acid, were observed at 20 °C. Maximum fatty acid concentrations were detected at FI and FIIend; while at 30 °C, different patterns for saturated and unsaturated fatty acids and three linolenic acid isomers were observed. A shorter FII is associated with earlier germination; the increase in concentration in fatty acids after 3 h and a negative correlation between linoleic and linolenic acid observed at 20 °C were related to a higher germination efficiency. At 30 °C, isomer formation is related to homeoviscous cell membrane adaptation.