The directive 2009/138/EC „Solvency II”, provides the determination of insurance capital requirements based either on a standard formula or an internal model built by the company and approved by the regulatory authority. The build of an internal model involves the determination of an extreme quantile from the empirical distribution of portfolio. An estimate of this quantile, with a 99.5% confidence level, requires a large number of simulations, each taking into account different scenarios as: insufficient reserves, unfavourable developments of financial assets, etc. The present paper proposes to argue the necessity of the extreme value theory approach in order to estimate the risk of loss for the insurance issue, in accordance with European Directive „Solvency II”, from the perspective of making prudent decisions for the assessment of insurance capital requirements.
Computer-Aided Semiosis (CAS) is a concept coined by a team of researchers a couple of years ago. Since it is a promising domain due to the fact that responds to actual trans-cultural communication needed in the broad-band society -where often the message behind the words does not come clear -the subject ought being inquired more detailed as promised in other papers of the same authors. This interesting idea was inspired from Eco's theory of communication which states that the receiver "fills the message with significance"; hence it is vital for any communication and is strongly dependent on the cultures involved. In line with Eco's theory, the research in this area must be trans-disciplinary and anthropocentric. In the intention of narrowing the existing gap between the technological offers and user expectations the macro-architectural feature is that translation will progress from textual, semantically correct, to multimodal, culturally adequate, based on common concepts and "grammar" (rules to combine them into meaningful sentences); thus, this paper will present possible approaches towards the implementation of CAS. Given the fact the ontologies are considered to be the pillars of Semantic Web but also a key tool in implementing CAS, both will be a subject of this paper in the light of finding an implementation solution. The paper is structured on five sections: the first will present the defining aspects of the concept relating it with previous research; the second section will deal with CAS approach and architecture, following with the state of the art regarding ontologies and their relation with Semantic Web. Among the conclusions, one is already noticeable: CAS could not be possible without a trans-cultural ontology.
Abstract:Simulation is one of the main instruments within the financial techniques of modeling decisions in condition of risk. The paper compares a couple of simulation methods for Sales and their impact on the need of short term financing. For simulating the need of working capital, the original software implementation is based on the data analysis and statistical facilities of a common spreadsheet program. The case study aims at proving the utility of the software for furnishing results with three of the main known simulation methods and helping the decisional process. Keywords: investment cycle, working capital, stochastic models, computer simulation, case study. The premises of the operative financing in condition of riskIn the contemporary society that deals with a sum of unexpected events, the knowledge based management has to accept an uncontrollable component of the economic reality that needs corrective and, moreover, preventive actions. The managerial decisions taken in conditions of risk have to limit their effects to values complying with a tolerance set up in advance.Managers have to be innovative and to find solutions that prevent the negative effects of the unexpected events. In the context of relaunching of the economy, in the new basic economic cycle, the main parameters have to be controlled in order to correctly assure the financial resources. As the usual forecasting methods are based on historical data, the decision maker takes in consideration the financial and time resources, the construction and validation of models for the behavior of the company in crisis conditions and the particular type of activities within the company. Forecasting the financial resources, that means a correct dimensioning of the working capital, is a pre-condition for fulfilling the company's short or medium time strategies. [5] Simulation of the company's behavior and of the needed working capital integrates the inputs and outputs of the company's budget. One of the main components of the budget are the Sales.
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