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The welfare reform bill adopted in the United States in 1996 limited the eligibility of immigrants for several government assistance programs, and early projections estimated that nearly half of the savings associated with the reforms would come from these immigrant restrictions. Several studies have found that subsequent program participation declined more for immigrants relative to natives, seemingly verifying the early projections. However, many of these restrictions were either rescinded by the federal government or superceded by state and local policies. In this paper, we first reproduce earlier findings that show the relative declines in program use among immigrants. We then show that much, but not all, of the relative decline in program use among immigrants can be explained by changing macroeconomic conditions. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

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The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has grown rapidly in recent years—by about 50% in the seven years between 2000 and 2007, and by another 70% in the four years between 2007 and 2011—such that in 2011, SNAP served 14% of the U.S. population. Contributing to our understanding of the causes of this very rapid increase in the caseload, this article extends the time period of analysis through and past the official end of the Great Recession, analyzes more geographically disaggregated caseloads and the impact of substate economic conditions, and considers the impact of recent major, state‐level SNAP policy changes. In models that exploit substate‐level data, we find consistent evidence of significant impacts of both the substate level and statewide economy on local area SNAP caseloads. Surprisingly, while one might have expected more geographically disaggregated data to improve the alignment of the measurement with the concept of interest (i.e., the labor market opportunities of an individual), and therefore lead to larger estimates of the impact of the economy, in fact estimates fall—perhaps due to measurement error. We find at best mixed evidence of policy impacts. Simulations indicate that the economy can account for most of the 2007 to 2011 increase in the caseload, although relatively less of the 2000 to 2007 increase. Nonetheless, the role of the economy in driving caseloads appears to be substantial in both periods.

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