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In the Zambezi region, seemingly unrelated political visions propagate two development paths: nature conservation to promote tourism and Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM), and agricultural intensification. This study examines the unintended interrelations between these top-down visions by linking upgrading possibilities in agricultural value chains (AVC) with livelihood strategies of farmers from a bottomup perspective. The results are based on qualitative field research that explains the how and why of the emergence of multiple rural development trajectories. We operationalise upgrading as actual and aspirational hanging in, stepping up and stepping out strategies. Findings show that although farmers envision stepping up their agricultural activities to better position themselves in AVCs, they remain in a strategic hanging in or downgrading state due CBNRM-related institutions. Concluding, we propose implications for CBNRM that synthesise competing development visions with actual livelihoods realities through the acknowledgment of small-scale agrarian systems rather than the crowding out of such. KEYWORDS CBNRM; agricultural value chains; livelihood strategies; conservation; Namibia Namibia's Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila expresses the ambitious goals set by the Namibian national government for economic development in the northeastern strip of the country, Zambezi region, both in the tourism and agricultural sector. These two economic development pillars are manifested in the Fifth National Development Plan (NDP5), which defines political goals to for the years 2017-2022. The modernisation of the agricultural sector is intended to improve small-scale

The article, thereby, aims to contribute to the burgeoning research strand on new path creation by bringing the debate a step closer to the major point of concern, regional economic development.We demonstrate the use of the framework to understand how new path creation may affect existing economic activities and how this relates to the overall goal of promoting regional economic development in an illustrative case study of the Zambezi region in northeastern Namibia. The Zambezi region, as we will show, is a suitable example to study the effects of new path creation on existing economic structures. Historically, the region relied on agriculture as the main livelihood activity. Since the 1990s, different resource formation processes have contributed to the creation of a tourism path. We analyze this formation process of the tourism path and its influence on the existing agricultural path. The findings highlight that new path development cannot be interpreted as a growth path for the entire region. The formation of the tourism path has generated variegated outcomes within the region, with benefits and losses unevenly distributed among firms and people.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global production networks and challenged the resilience of regional economies to external shocks. The tourism sector was severely affected by the travel bans imposed, as were regions characterised by tourism development, such as Zambezi in northern Namibia. Nonetheless, with the support of the national government, conservancies, as local governance institutions, partly maintained the distribution of value from tourism throughout the pandemic and strengthened agriculture-tourism linkages to achieve long-term transformation. These findings suggest that local institutions are able to create regional resilience through their capacity to drive adaptation and adaptability in a diversified regional economy.