Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

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Because of their role in limiting gene flow, geographical barriers like mountains or seas often coincide with intraspecific genetic discontinuities. Although the Strait of Gibraltar represents such a potential barrier for both plants and animals, few studies have been conducted on its impact on gene flow. Here we test this effect on a bat species (Myotis myotis) which is apparently distributed on both sides of the strait. Six colonies of 20 Myotis myotis each were sampled in southern Spain and northern Morocco along a linear transect of 1350 km. Results based on six nuclear microsatellite loci reveal no significant population structure within regions, but a complete isolation between bats sampled on each side of the strait. Variability at 600 bp of a mitochondrial gene (cytochrome b) confirms the existence of two genetically distinct and perfectly segregating clades, which diverged several million years ago. Despite the narrowness of the Gibraltar Strait (14 km), these molecular data suggest that neither males, nor females from either region have ever reproduced on the opposite side of the strait. Comparisons of molecular divergence with bats from a closely related species (M. blythii) suggest that the North African clade is possibly a distinct taxon warranting full species rank. We provisionally refer to it as Myotis cf punicus Felten 1977, but a definitive systematic understanding of the whole Mouse-eared bat species complex awaits further genetic sampling, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean areas.

Long-eared bats of the genus Plecotus are widespread and common over most of the western Palaearctic. Based on recent molecular evidence, they proved to represent a complex of several cryptic species, with three new species being described from Europe in 2002. Evolutionary relationships among the different lineages are still fragmentary because of the limited geographic coverage of previous studies. Here we analyze Plecotus mitochondrial DNA sequences from the entire Mediterranean region and Atlantic Islands. Phylogenetic reconstructions group these western Palaearctic Plecotus into two major clades which split at least 5 Myr ago and that are each subdivided into further subgroups. An 'auritus group' includes the traditional P. auritus species and its sister taxon P. macrobullaris (=P. alpinus) plus related specimens from the Middle East. P. auritus and P. macrobullaris have broadly overlapping distributions in Europe, although the latter is apparently more restricted to mountain ranges. The other major clade, the 'austriacus group,' includes the European species P. austriacus and at least two other related taxa from North Africa (including P. teneriffae from the Canary Islands), the Balkans and Anatolia (P. kolombatovici). The sister species of this 'austriacus group' is P. balensis, an Ethiopian endemic. Phylogenetic reconstructions further suggest that P. austriacus reached Madeira during its relatively recent westward expansion through Europe, while the Canary Islands were colonized by a North African ancestor. Although colonization of the two groups of Atlantic Islands by Plecotus bats followed very distinct routes, neither involved lineages from the 'auritus group.' Furthermore, the Strait of Gibraltar perfectly segregates the distinct lineages, which confirms its key role as a geographic barrier. This study also stresses the biogeographical importance of the Mediterranean region, and particularly of North Africa, in understanding the evolution of the western Palaearctic biotas.

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.