The internal rate of return (IRR) is often used by managers and practitioners for investment decisions. Unfortunately, it has serious flaws: (i) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise, (ii) complex-valued IRRs may arise, (iii) the IRR is, in general, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions (iv) the IRR ranking is, in general, different from the NPV ranking, (v) the IRR criterion is not applicable with variable costs of capital. The efforts of economists and management scientists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense bulk of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. This paper offers a complete solution to this long-standing issue by changing the usual perspective: the IRR equation is dismissed and the evaluator is allowed to describe the project as an investment or a borrowing at his discretion. This permits to show that any arithmetic mean of the one-period return rates implicit in a project reliably informs about a project's profitability and correctly ranks competing projects. With such a measure, which we name "Average Internal Rate of Return", complex-valued numbers disappear and all the above mentioned problems are wiped out. The economic meaning is compelling: it is the project return rate implicitly determined by the market. The traditional IRR notion may be found back as a particular case.
This paper shows that the Internal-Rate-of-Return (IRR) approach is unreliable, and that the recently introduced Average-Internal-Rate-of-Return (AIRR) model constitutes the basis for an alternative theoretical paradigm of rate of return. To this end, we divide the paper into two parts: a pars destruens and a pars construens. In the "destructive" part, we present a compendium of eighteen flaws associated with the IRR approach. In the "constructive" part, we construct the alternative approach from four (independent) economic intuitions and put the paradigm to the test by showing that it does not suffer from any of the flaws previously investigated. We also show how the IRR, as a rate of return, is absorbed into the new approach.Acknowledgment. The author wishes to thank Joseph Hartman for his helpful suggestions for the revision of the paper.
HERMES is a prospective study, including all treatment-naïve patients attending scheduled visits at hospitals in the CISAI group in 2007. The present cross-sectional analysis aims to assess the baseline prevalence and characteristics of Metabolic Syndrome (MS) in a population of HIV-positive treatment-naïve patients. MS was diagnosed using the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definitions. A total of 292 subjects were enrolled, median age was 37 years, 75% of them were males. The prevalence of MS was 12.3%. The most frequent trio of abnormalities that led to the diagnosis of MS was high blood pressure, triglycerides and HDL. Univariate analysis showed that MS was associated with the following variables: age, education, physical activity, advanced HIV disease (CDC stage C or HIV-RNA >100,000 copies + CD4 <100 cells/mm(3)). Higher educational levels remained protectively associated with MS in multivariate analysis. A higher risk of MS was also associated with advanced HIV disease. Actually, treatment-naïve HIV-positive patients in an advanced stage of the disease have a higher prevalence of abnormal levels of triglycerides, HDL cholesterol and blood glucose than those at a less advanced stage. These findings of the HERMES study suggest, therefore, that HIV infection per se is associated to MS.
Investment decisions may be evaluated via several different metrics/criteria, which are functions of a vector of value drivers. The economic significance and the reliability of a metric depend on its compatibility with the Net Present Value (NPV). Traditionally, a metric is said to be NPV-consistent if it is coherent with NPV in signalling value creation. This paper makes use of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) for measuring coherence between rates of return and NPV. In particular, it introduces a new, stronger definition of NPV-consistency that takes into account the influence of value drivers on the metric output. A metric is strongly NPV-consistent if it signals value creation and the ranking of the value drivers in terms of impact on the output is the same as that provided by the NPV. The degree of (in)coherence is calculated with Spearman's (1904) correlation coefficient and Iman and Conover's (1987) top-down coefficient. We focus on the class of AIRRs (Magni 2010, 2013) and show that the average Return On Investment (ROI) enjoys strong NPV-consistency under several (possibly all) methods of Sensitivity Analysis.
Abstract.The Net Present Value maximizing model has a respectable ancestry and is considered by most scholars a theoretically sound decision model. In real-life applications, decision makers use the NPV rule, but apply a subjectively determined hurdle rate, as opposed to the "correct" opportunity cost of capital.According to a heuristics-and-biases-program approach, this implies that the hurdle-rate rule is a biased heuristic. This work shows that the hurdle-rate rule may be interpreted as a fruitful strategy of bounded rationality, where several domain-specific and project-specific elements are integrated and condensed into an aspiration level. The paper also addresses the issue of a productive cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality.JEL codes: A11, A12, B41, C61, D46, D81, G11, G31, M21.
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