The study used the Markov regime switching model to investigate the presence of regimes in the volatility dynamics of the returns of JSE All-Share Index (ALSI). Volatility regimes are as a result of sudden changes in the underlying economy generating the market returns. In all, twelve candidate models were fitted to the data. Estimates from the regime switching model were compared to the industry standard non-switching GARCH (1,1) using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). The results show that the two-regime switching EGARCH model with skewed Student t innovations describes better the return of the JSE Index. Additionally, we backtest the model results in order to confirm our findings that the two-regime switching EGARCH is the best of the models for the sample period.

We adopt a granular approach to estimating the risk of equity returns in sub-Saharan African frontier equity markets under the assumption that, returns are influenced by developments in the underlying economy. Four countries were studied -Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. We found heterogeneity in the evolution of volatility across these markets and also that two-regime switching volatility models describe better the heteroscedastic returns generating processes in these markets using the deviance information criteria. We backtest the results to assess whether the models are a good fit for the data. We concluded that, the selected models are the most suitable for predicting the volatility of future returns in the markets studied.

Conceptually, new technologies have affected individuals and organisations resulting to the rethinking of all the fundamental operating assumptions of many organisations and the roles in them. Organisations exist in a rapidly changing environment, necessitating responsive and often radical strategic capabilities. This strategic move has allowed organisations to create new demand, open up new market space, apply creative solutions to problems and exploit opportunities to enhance or to enrich people’s lives - innovation. The Information Technology (IT) industry is competitive by any market criteria used. Unlike its counterparts from traditional manufacturing industries, IT products have short shelf-lives (Mody et al., 1987) and appeal for customers and consumers. Survival for IT firms thus depends on a constant stream of new products and/or incremental efficiencies of existing products from the firm’s innovation assembly line. Within the technology industry, the market for IT products is perfectly competitive with little or no barriers to entry. This paper focuses on investigating why matured stage IT firms finds it so difficult to innovate. It will also assess some relevant growth strategies and further review related literature on how matured IT firms can build an organisational culture that promotes innovation. A new conceptual framework necessary to formulate strategies for surviving will also be developed and diagrammatically represented.

No abstract