Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.
Let's take a look at a possible future Germany that has reached its net-zero CO 2 emissions goal by 2050. What are the measures that have contributed to reaching this net-zero system? And what kind of implementation efforts are associated with this portfolio of measures?In this perspective, we outline how a carbon-neutral system for Germany in 2050 could look like, following three strategies of avoiding, reducing, and removing CO 2 emissions. We envision a net-zero-2050 Germany by combining analysis from an energy system model with insights into approaches that allow for a higher carbon circularity in the German system, and first results from assessments of national carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potentials.
The environmental benefits of low‐carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic modules, have been under debate because their large‐scale deployment will require a drastic increase in metal production. This is of concern because higher metal demand may induce ore grade decline and can thereby further intensify the environmental footprint of metal supply. To account for this interlinkage known as the “energy‐resource nexus”, energy and metal supply scenarios need to be assessed in conjunction. We investigate the trends of future impacts of metal supplies and low‐carbon technologies, considering both metal and electricity supply scenarios. We develop metal supply scenarios for copper, nickel, zinc, and lead, extending previous work. Our scenarios consider developments such as ore grade decline, energy‐efficiency improvements, and secondary production shares. We also include two future electricity supply scenarios from the IMAGE model using a recently published methodology. Both scenarios are incorporated into the background database of ecoinvent to realize an integrated modeling approach, that is, future metal supply chains make use of future electricity and vice versa. We find that impacts of the modeled metal supplies and low‐carbon technologies may decrease in the future. Key drivers for impact reductions are the electricity transition and increasing secondary production shares. Considering both metal and electricity scenarios has proven valuable because they drive impact reductions in different categories, namely human toxicity (up to −43%) and climate change (up to −63%), respectively. Thus, compensating for lower ore grades and reducing impacts beyond climate change requires both greener electricity and also sustainable metal supply. This article met the requirements for a Gold‐Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges
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