The Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol for describing Individual-and Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is now widely accepted and used to document such models in journal articles. As a standardized document for providing a consistent, logical and readable account of the structure and dynamics of ABMs, some research groups also find it useful as a workflow for model design. Even so, there are still limitations to ODD that obstruct its more widespread adoption. Such limitations are discussed and addressed in this paper: the limited availability of guidance on how to use ODD; the length of ODD documents; limitations of ODD for highly complex models; lack of su icient details of many ODDs to enable reimplementation without access to the model code; and the lack of provision for sections in the document structure covering model design rationale, the model's underlying narrative, and the means by which the model's fitness for purpose is evaluated. We document the steps we have taken to provide better guidance on: structuring complex ODDs and an ODD summary for inclusion in a journal article (with full details in supplementary material; Table ); using ODD to JASSS, ( ) , http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/ / / .html Doi: . /jasss.point readers to relevant sections of the model code; update the document structure to include sections on model rationale and evaluation. We also further advocate the need for standard descriptions of simulation experiments and argue that ODD can in principle be used for any type of simulation model. Thereby ODD would provide a lingua franca for simulation modelling.
To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Patternoriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.
In marine environments noise from human activities is increasing dramatically, causing animals to alter their behavior and forage less efficiently. These alterations incur energetic costs that can result in reproductive failure, death, and may ultimately influence population viability; yet the link between population dynamics and individual energetics is poorly understood. We present an energy budget model for simulating effects of acoustic disturbance on populations. It accounts for environmental variability and individual state, while incorporating realistic animal movements. Using harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) as a case study, we evaluated population consequences of disturbance from seismic surveys and investigated underlying drivers of vulnerability. The framework reproduced empirical estimates of population structure and seasonal variations in energetics. The largest effects predicted for seismic surveys were in late summer and fall, and were unrelated to local abundance, but instead to lactation costs, water temperature, and body fat. Our results demonstrate that consideration of temporal variation in individual energetics and their link to costs associated with disturbances is imperative when predicting disturbance impacts. These mechanisms are general to animal species, and the framework presented here can be used for gaining new insights into the spatiotemporal variability of animal movements and energetics that control population dynamics.
While harbor porpoises currently enter San Francisco Bay year-round, evidence suggests a disappearance that spanned approximately 65 yr. The range of energetic costs of basal metabolism, locomotion, thermoregulation, and reproduction was estimated for porpoises, using a velocity-dependent bioenergetic model to estimate the potential food requirements of this returning predator. The costs of thermoregulation and locomotion varied with velocity while basal metabolism and reproduction did not. The total metabolic rate in W was analyzed for all possible adult reproductive states. Estimated biomass uptake in kg/d for a 68.5 6 26.5 km daily swimming distance was assessed using a mixed diet of northern anchovy and rockfish for all possible reproductive states and was found to be highest for simultaneously pregnant and lactating females (4.1 6 1.6 kg/d) and lowest for male porpoises (1.7 6 0.6 kg/d). Total energy requirements found for harbor porpoises ranged from 79.3 6 29.0 W to 186.0 6 58.5 W. The daily energetic intake for lactating porpoises was estimated to be 105% greater than for a nonreproductive female porpoise. Harbor porpoises in SF Bay were found to require approximately 30.4 6 22.0 metric tons of fish per year from Bay waters.
The acceptance and usefulness of simulation models are often limited by the efficiency, transparency, reproducibility, and reliability of the modelling process. We address these issues by suggesting that modellers (1) "trace" the iterative modelling process by keeping a modelling notebook corresponding to the laboratory notebooks used by empirical researchers, (2) use a standardized notebook structure and terminology based on the existing TRACE documentation framework, and (3) use their notebooks to compile TRACE documents that supplement publications and reports. These practices have benefits for model developers, users, and stakeholders: improved and efficient model design, analysis, testing, and application; increased model acceptance and reuse; and replicability and reproducibility of the model and the simulation experiments. Using TRACE terminology and structure in modelling notebooks facilitates production of TRACE documents. We explain the
1. Climate change is modifying the structure of marine ecosystems, including that of fish communities. Alterations in abiotic and biotic conditions can decrease fish size and change community spatial arrangement, ultimately impacting predator species which rely on these communities. To conserve predators and understand the drivers of observed changes in their population dynamics, we must advance our understanding of how shifting environmental conditions can impact populations by limiting food available to individuals. K E Y W O R D S agent-based model, climate change effects, energy budgets, harbour porpoise, hidden Markov modelling, marine mammal, physiological ecology, predictive ecology | 243
Animals that depend on ephemeral, patchily distributed prey often use public information to locate resource patches. The use of public information can lead to the aggregation of foragers at prey patches, a mechanism known as local enhancement. However, when ephemeral resources are distributed over large areas, foragers may also need to increase search efficiency, and thus apply social strategies when sampling the landscape. While sensory networks of visually oriented animals have already been confirmed, we lack an understanding of how acoustic eavesdropping adds to the formation of sensory networks. Here we radio-tracked a total of 81 aerial-hawking bats at very high spatiotemporal resolution during five sessions over 3 y, recording up to 19 individuals simultaneously. Analyses of interactive flight behavior provide conclusive evidence that bats form temporary mobile sensory networks by adjusting their movements to neighboring conspecifics while probing the airspace for prey. Complementary agent-based simulations confirmed that the observed movement patterns can lead to the formation of mobile sensory networks, and that bats located prey faster when networking than when relying only on local enhancement or searching solitarily. However, the benefit of networking diminished with decreasing group size. The combination of empirical analyses and simulations elucidates how animal groups use acoustic information to efficiently locate unpredictable and ephemeral food patches. Our results highlight that declining local populations of social foragers may thus suffer from Allee effects that increase the risk of collapses under global change scenarios, like insect decline and habitat degradation.
Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as ‘key’ questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.
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