To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Patternoriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. We address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

The southeastern U.S. is widely known as a bastion of privately-owned, managed pine (Pinus spp.) forests, comprised primarily of native pine species. The region supports high levels of biodiversity, but also a multi-billion-dollar forest products economy critical to socioeconomic stability of rural areas. We conducted a systematic review of studies focused exclusively on avifaunal associations within privately-owned, managed pine landscapes in the southeastern U.S. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis framework to examine all available studies that evaluated aspects of avian diversity, abundance, and community composition across a suite of forest types, stand ages, and forest management practices within southeastern managed pine systems in the last 70 years. We screened 160 records through primary database searches, and 1696 secondary records from supplemental searches and other sources, and identified 103 relevant articles for inclusion. As expected, although there is no single forest management practice that best provides for avian communities, we found practices that: (1) involve prudent site preparation; (2) promote forest thinning and intermediate management practices; (3) provide non-pine vegetative cover; (4) supply fine- and meso-filter resources such as retained snags and coarse woody debris; and (5) promote heterogeneity in cover types, largely enhanced value of southeastern managed pine systems to avian communities. Overall, it appears that avian communities can be best maintained by providing a diverse mosaic of forest conditions in managed pine landscapes. Key research gaps include improving understanding avian population demographics, such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal.

State-approved forestry best-management practices (BMPs) are a practice or combination of practices that, when properly implemented, effectively prevent or reduce the amount of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution entering waterbodies, such as sediment. Although BMPs are voluntary in most states in the southeastern United States (U.S.), forest landowners operating under the auspices of a forest certification system are required to use BMPs, and forest-certified wood procurement organizations also require loggers who supply them with fiber to use BMPs. Current implementation rates are, on average, 93.6% throughout the southeastern U.S. We conducted a literature review to better understand potential effectiveness of BMPs to conserve aquatic resources and species in the southeastern U.S. Our review focuses on how BMPs reduce NPS pollutants, particularly sediment, fertilizers, and herbicides; how BMPs are monitored throughout the southeastern U.S.; and current implementation rates. Additionally, we discuss how state BMP monitoring programs, coupled with participation in forest certification programs that require routine third-party audits, provide assurance to federal and state agencies that BMPs protect aquatic resources and species. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has recognized that working forests where management activities implement BMPs represent a clear, actionable, and scientifically sound approach for conserving at-risk aquatic species. However, there is a data gap in directly linking BMPs to the conservation of aquatic resources. Given the high diversity of aquatic species in the southeastern U.S., it is important to better understand this potential linkage.

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