Bu makale Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Ekonometri bölümü üst sınıf öğrencilerinin sayısal derslerdeki başarısını araştırmaktadır. Matematiksel İktisat 1-2, Ekonometri 1-2 ve Zaman Serisi 1-2 derslerindeki başarıyı ölçmek için Markov modeli kullanılmıştır. Bu amaçla başarının kalıcılığı ve derslerin etkenliği geçiş olasılıkları matrisinden hesaplanmıştır. Ekonometri Türkçe öğretimde başarıda kalıcılığı ve etkenliği en yüksek olan iki ders, Ekonometri II üzerinde, sırasıyla Mikro İktisat II ve Mikro İktisat I olarak bulunmuştur. Uzun vadede, Ekonometri bölümü Türkçe öğretimde başarının ilerleme olasılığının ve İngilizce öğretimde başarının düşme olasılığının en yüksek olacağı ders Ekonometri II olarak bulunmuştur. Kısa vadede başarıda kalıcılığın Türkçe öğretimde Mikro İktisat II'den Ekonometri I'e geçişte, İngilizce öğretimde ise İstatistik derslerinden Zaman Serisi I dersine geçişte en düşük olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Purpose-This article predicts tax declaration rates by Markov chain model. Methodology-Four Markov models are constructed for the declaration rates of three tax revenues. Declaration probabilities for the year 2017 are estimated by constructing probability matrices of transitions between classes described for every model. Declaration rates are predicted by the product of the initial probability matrix and transition probability matrix. Limiting matrices of predictions are foun d. The best Markov model was found by estimating the sum of mean square errors for every model. Findings-Main results of this study are i) transitions of tax declarations are declining in higher states and improving in lower states, ii) in i ts best model corporate tax declaration rate is predicted to be between 47% and 64.5% in 2017 with a probability of 78% and woul d be stable in the same interval at a probability of 60% in 2038, iii) in the long run income tax would decrease ₺20,3 billion with a probability of 42% and Value Added Tax would decrease ₺26,2 billion with a probability of 40% and iv) expected declaration rates of income tax, corporate tax and value added tax in 2017 are 52.3%, 61.6% and 62.8%, respectively. Conclusion-Income tax and Value Added Tax payoffs may substantially decrease from 2015 to 2038 and 2023 respectively. This may cause a revenue deficiency to Turkish Revenue Administration. Therefore İncome tax and Value Added Tax audits should be increased. Even though tax revenues increase over time, the declaration rates show a decreasing to stationary or increasing to stationary behavior.
This study examines whether dispositional optimism mediates the effects of emotional disorders (anxiety, depression) on self-reported current psychological state. For this purpose, indirect effects of anxiety and depression through dispositional optimism is tested for statistical significance. For preliminary results, a multivariate regression model including current psychological state as dependent variable and anxiety, depression and dispositional optimism as predictors was run. Anxiety and dispositional optimisim significantly predicted current psychological state. Depression subscale was not a significant predictor. Hierarchical regression analysis and structural equation modeling was performed to determine the mediating role of dispositional optimism. Hierarchical regression analysis results show that dispositional optimism significantly predicts psychological state beyond anxiety (∆F(1,851)=64.21, ∆R2=0.067, p
Purpose -This paper investigates the extent to which the implementation of mobile number portability affects the customer churn in the short run and long run. The aim is to calculate the market shares of the operators based on students' operator preference rates for the first six months and the first 18 months of the implementation period and to predict operators' future market share under the assumptions that students will continue to behave the same in preferring operators and firms' policies will remain unchanged. Methodology -A face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 1709 students at Cukurova University in 2017. Subscriber changes in the first six months after the implementation and in the first 18 months after the implementation were analyzed for the possibility that subscribers might react later. Using the Markov chain method, the transition probability matrix showing the market share of the three mobile telephone service providers was constructed and the stationarity matrix was calculated. Findings-After six months from the introduction of mobile number porting, Turkcell has the highest customer retention rate with 91.7% followed by Avea (now merged with and owned by Turk Telekom) with 3.3% difference and Vodafone with 6.9% difference. After 18 months from the introduction of mobile number porting, customer retention rates of the three operators were balanced at about 91%, and operators lost customers to each other at about the same rate. Conclusion-Turkcell will maintain its leadership in the short run with a decrease in its market share and the market share of the three operators will be balanced in the long run.
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