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We have analyzed a multiparametric data set of seismological, geodetic and geochemical data recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera since 1982. We focus here on the period 1989–2010 that followed the last bradyseismic crisis of 1982–1984. Since then, there have been at least five repeated minor episodes of ground uplift accompanied by seismicity. We have reanalyzed old paper and digital seismic data sets dating back to 1982. The paper recordings show evidence of long‐period events in January 1982 and March 1989, and we have digitized some of these significant waveforms. Furthermore, the revision of digital seismograms dating back to 1994 shows a significant swarm of long‐period events in August 1994. Volcano‐tectonic and long‐period events hypocenters have been relocated in a three‐dimensional velocity model. Statistical analysis of volcano‐tectonic seismicity shows many similarities and few differences between 1982–1984 and the following period 1989–2010. Long‐period waveforms have been analyzed using spectral analysis, which shows a grouping into three macrofamilies. Similarities in the seismic signature of episodes of minor uplift suggest that they originate from the injection of fluids into the deep part of a geothermal reservoir (about 2.5 km depth) and in its transfer toward a shallower part (about 0.75 km depth). Most of the observed geophysical signals are related to this second phase. The evidence consists of spatial and temporal connections between the ground deformation, long‐period and volcano‐tectonic seismicity and changes in the geochemical parameters of fumaroles. In this study we focused our analysis on two uplift episodes observed in 2000 and 2006. The joint inversion of Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) and tiltmeter data show that during these periods the ground deformation was generated by at least two distinct sources located at different depths, with the shallower activated in the later stages of the uplift episodes. Our interpretation of the recent dynamics of Campi Flegrei is that the deep part of the geothermal reservoir inflates in response to mass and heat input from a magmatic source. When the pressure exceeds a threshold, fluids starts to migrate into the shallower part. During this transfer, long‐period sources are activated in response to the fluid motion. The gradual diffusion of fluids in the surrounding rocks lowers the resistance of a pervasive fracture system generating shallow microseismicity. Finally, fluids reach the surface, which gives a distinct geochemical signature to the overlying fumaroles.

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Calderas are collapse structures related to the emptying of magmatic reservoirs, often associated with large eruptions from long-lived magmatic systems. Understanding how magma is transferred from a magma reservoir to the surface before eruptions is a major challenge. Here we exploit the historical, archaeological and geological record of Campi Flegrei caldera to estimate the surface deformation preceding the Monte Nuovo eruption and investigate the shallow magma transfer. Our data suggest a progressive magma accumulation from ~1251 to 1536 in a 4.6 ± 0.9 km deep source below the caldera centre, and its transfer, between 1536 and 1538, to a 3.8 ± 0.6 km deep magmatic source ~4 km NW of the caldera centre, below Monte Nuovo; this peripheral source fed the eruption through a shallower source, 0.4 ± 0.3 km deep. This is the first reconstruction of pre-eruptive magma transfer at Campi Flegrei and corroborates the existence of a stationary oblate source, below the caldera centre, that has been feeding lateral eruptions for the last ~5 ka. Our results suggest: 1) repeated emplacement of magma through intrusions below the caldera centre; 2) occasional lateral transfer of magma feeding non-central eruptions within the caldera. Comparison with historical unrest at calderas worldwide suggests that this behavior is common.

Transient seismicity at active volcanoes poses a significant risk in addition to eruptive activity. This risk is powered by the common belief that volcanic seismicity cannot be forecast, even on a long term. Here we investigate the nature of volcanic seismicity to try to improve our forecasting capacity. To this aim, we consider Ischia volcano (Italy), which suffered similar earthquakes along its uplifted resurgent block. We show that this seismicity marks an acceleration of decades-long subsidence of the resurgent block, driven by degassing of magma that previously produced the uplift, a process not observed at other volcanoes. Degassing will continue for hundreds to thousands of years, causing protracted seismicity and will likely be accompanied by moderate and damaging earthquakes. The possibility to constrain the future duration of seismicity at Ischia indicates that our capacity to forecast earthquakes might be enhanced when seismic activity results from long-term magmatic processes, such as degassing Plain Language Summary Seismic events that take place in volcanic areas are influenced by multiple volcanic processes, so seismicity is difficult to forecast. Sometimes seismicity may follow a recurrent behavior in time and mechanism. Therefore, understanding the main processes active at volcanoes may help to understand the causes of seismicity and contribute to forecast. The volcanic island of Ischia (Italy) shows decades-long subsidence of its surface up to 1.2 cm/yr and experienced several destructive earthquakes in the last centuries. We use a multidisciplinary approach of mechanical and thermal simulations to understand the active processes and, in turn, to give insights on the causes of such seismicity. We find that the intense degassing of a magmatic body at 2 km depth drives the island-scale subsidence and causes the observed recurrent seismicity. Our simulations show that degassing will continue for hundreds/thousands years. These results highlight that if seismicity is caused by recognizable magmatic processes, such as degassing, the capacity to forecast earthquakes at volcanoes may be significantly enhanced.

In the present paper, we analyse ground tilt and seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. These areas have been well studied for many years from a petrological, volcanological and geophysical view point. Moreover, due to the high seismic and volcanic risk for the populations living there, they are continuously monitored by networks of geophysical and geochemical sensors. We summarize the most important results that we obtained so far, concerning the observations of relationships between seismic activity and ground tilt anomalies, focusing on the time interval 2015–2018. First, we present a detailed description of the tiltmeter and seismic networks in both the investigated areas, as well as their development and improvement over time that has enabled high quality data collection. From the joint analysis of the seismic and borehole tiltmeter signals, we often notice concurrence between tilt pattern variations and the occurrence of seismicity. Moreover, the major tilt anomalies appear to be linked with the rate and energy of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, as well as with exogenous phenomena like solid Earth tides and hydrological cycles. The analysis that we present has potential applicability to other volcanic systems. Our findings show how the joint use tilt and seismic data can contribute to better understanding of the dynamics of volcanoes.

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Abstract. We analyse tiltmeter time series recorded from April 2015 to March 2019 at three borehole instruments installed at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). We evaluate the crustal response in terms of ground tilting to external excitations of medium/long-period tidal constituents by applying a polarization analysis. The azimuths of the tilt vectors show well-defined polarization directions and the ground tilting planes oscillate with the periodicity of the corresponding tidal constituents. For two of the three tiltmeters, the average ground oscillation pattern related to the monthly Mm and fortnightly Mf constituents show seasonal variations, which can be ascribed to rainfall-induced tilting. In addition, for the same two instruments, a clear seasonal amplitude modulation of the diurnal S1 constituent appears in the time series, revealing the occurrence of site thermoelastic effects. The results indicate that the tidal tilting is mainly controlled by the local stress field distribution and rheology; in addition, seasonal exogenous factors like rainfalls play a role in modulating the ground deformation.