This paper presents the first-ever analysis of South African and Eurozone road fuel markets for the possibility that firms may be manipulating the tax system to conceal rent-seeking behavior using the nonlinear ARDL model recently advanced by Shin et al. (2013). The paper also examines these markets for asymmetric price adjustment following changes in crude oil costs in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. Monthly data for gasoline, automotive diesel and costs of imported crude oil from November 2004 to August 2016 were used. The results indicate that while the Eurozone road fuel markets are fraught with the problems of long-run rent-seeking, rockets and feathers effect, and the possibility that firms may be exploiting the tax system to conceal rent-seeking behaviors, the South African markets are free from these problems. Even though South Africa and the Eurozone countries have high oil import dependency ratios, this paper shows that government regulatory activities somewhat account for the difference in market outcomes.
This paper examines the exchange rate sensitivity and its determinants with special focus on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector . The motivation for this study is driven by the exposure of Nigeria's exchange rate and economy excessively to external shocks as revealed by the effects of the recent global economic crisis on Nigeria. In doing this, Error Correction Model (ECM), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testand the Johansen co-integration technique were adopted to examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigeria's manufacturing sector. The variables employed include: Average Official Exchange Rate of Naira vis-à-vis US Dollar and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Indices, interest rate, inflation rate, Balance of Payment (BOP), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), manufacturing index of ordinary shares listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, and average manufacturing capacity utilisation rates. The result of the empirical analyses showed that the Nigerian manufacturing sector is not sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations in the long-run. Also, it was found that interest rate and Gross Domestic Product are the main determinants of exchange rates in Nigeria but interest rateis insignificant in the determination of exchange rate in the country. Some of the recommendations made in this study are that: the monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production, the monetary authorities must endeavour to force the interest rate down and continue to advocate for priority lending to the manufacturing firms. Equally, the government must continue to discourage importation in order to maintain exchange rate stability.
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