The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?

Ogbuabor, Jonathan E.; Ukwueze, Ezebuilo R.; Ifeoma, C; Ojonta, Obed I.; Orji, Anthony

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120671

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In the same moment, a strand of the literature has used the NARDL framework to study the macroeconomic eff ects of EPU, since it has been established that macroeconomic variables may respond diff erently to an increase in uncertainty as compared to a decrease in uncertainty (Shin et al, 2014). Ogbuabor et al (2023) used this framework to fi nd that rising uncertainty signifi cantly increases retail energy prices both in the short run and long run, particularly in Europe, Japan and UK, while the asymmetric patterns show that many of the markets respond more to rising uncertainty than declining uncertainty. Ogbuabor et al ( 2022) also used the NARDL approach to fi nd that rising uncertainty hampers aggregate and sectoral output growth, and discourages investment, employment, and private consumption, and increases consumer prices signifi cantly in Brazil, India, China and South Africa.…”

Section: Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…where: EPU t + = Σ t j=1 max (∆ EPU j , 0) and EPU t -= Σ t j=1 min (∆ EPU j , 0) are the partial sum processes of positive and negative changes in EPU t ; EPU 0 is the initial threshold value assumed to be zero following Ogbuabor et al (2023;2019b), Ogbonna and Ichoku (2022), Shin et al (2014), and Greenwood-Nimmo and Shin (2013); Δ is the fi rst diff erence operator; and ε t is the error term. The decomposition of EPU into partial sum processes in Equation ( 5) splits the EPU variable in the ratio 49:51 in favour of the negative regime.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Symmetric or Asymmetric: How is Economic Growth Responding to Global Economic Uncertainty in Africa's Oil Exporters?

Ogbuabor,

Ogbonna,

Anthony-Orji

et al. 2023

Prague Economic Papers

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Motivated by the persistent fall in oil prices due to incessant uncertainty-inducing events in recent years, this study empirically examined if economic growth in Africa's top five oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria) is responding asymmetrically to changes in global economic uncertainty as well as uncertainties from U.S., Europe and China using nonlinear ARDL framework from 1997Q1 to 2021Q4. We find that rising global uncertainty hampers economic growth in these economies, while declining global uncertainty significantly enhances growth in Nigeria, Angola and Libya in the short run, but becomes growth-retarding in the long run. Thus, economic growth responds asymmetrically to global uncertainty, especially in the short run. The findings are robust to U.S., Europe, and China uncertainties, except that economic growth in Libya and Algeria remained unresponsive to U.S. and China uncertainties respectively. We concluded that Africa's oil exporters should embrace policies that can strengthen their resilience to global economic uncertainty as well as uncertainties from U.S., Europe, and China.

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Section: Empirical Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Symmetric or Asymmetric: How is Economic Growth Responding to Global Economic Uncertainty in Africa's Oil Exporters?

Ogbuabor,

Ogbonna,

Anthony-Orji

et al. 2023

Prague Economic Papers

Self Cite

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“…Their active engagement in collusive relationships through certain means (usually bribes) with financially demanding firms is in line with the principle of “rent‐seeking” theory, that is, regulators take their own power as leverage to interfere with the economic activities to seek excessive profits, which causes consequent loss of benefits for the law abiding, increased inequity in the regulated industry, and reduced system efficiency (Krueger, 1974; Murphy et al, 1993). Literature on rent‐seeking theory has received consideration in industries covering environment regulations (Du et al, 2021), retail supervision (Ogbuabor et al, 2023), and banking regulation (Fu et al, 2023). Preliminary research in supply chain finance on the theory has also been conducted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary game analysis of rent seeking in inventory financing based on blockchain technology

Zhang

et al. 2023

Manage Decis Econ

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This study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model composed of a small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME), a supervisory enterprise, and a bank for the inventory financing model. The effects of blockchain technology on rent seeking in supply chain finance are calculated with focuses on its mechanism and advantages in inventory financing from the theoretical perspective. The influence of the parameters on the evolutions is likewise determined. Results show that for high‐value financing business, compared with the traditional model, the bank's application of blockchain can accelerate the system to the stable state, in which the SME complies with the contract, the supervisor does not seek collusion, and the bank thoroughly investigates the relationships of enterprises, and the enhancement of blockchain's automatic monitoring capability does not lead to the bank's inaction on regulation. For low‐value financing business, in response to the problem of collusion between the SME and the supervisor for additional benefits in the traditional model, the bank can monitor fund transfers within enterprises and unauthorized pledge release through smart contracts embedded in the blockchain system to automatically detect joint defaults, and effectively avoid the negative stable state of the bank indulging in inter‐enterprise relations which triggers collusion to embezzle financing. In addition, the bank can enhance the robustness of inventory financing service and curb rent‐seeking behavior in the blockchain inventory financing through strict penalties on the supervisor for its violations, monitoring abnormal capital flows of the SME, confirming appropriate credit rate gap, and moderately raising the service value threshold.

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Fortify the investment performance of crude oil market by integrating sentiment analysis and an interval-based trading strategy

Yang,

Cheng,

et al. 2024

Applied Energy

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The asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on global retail energy markets: Are the markets responding to the fear of the unknown?

Cited by 10 publications

References 54 publications

Symmetric or Asymmetric: How is Economic Growth Responding to Global Economic Uncertainty in Africa's Oil Exporters?

Symmetric or Asymmetric: How is Economic Growth Responding to Global Economic Uncertainty in Africa's Oil Exporters?

Evolutionary game analysis of rent seeking in inventory financing based on blockchain technology

Fortify the investment performance of crude oil market by integrating sentiment analysis and an interval-based trading strategy

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