This study examines change in 152 children over an almost 10-year period (T1: 4.9 (± 1.3) years; T2: 8.1 (± 1.3) years; T3: 15(± 1.6) years) using a group-based, semi-parametric method in order to identify distinct developmental trajectories. Important deficits remain at adolescence in the adaptive abilities of children with Autism spectrum disorders, but changes in adaptive skills show two distinct growth rates. The univariate analysis reveals that low growth trajectories for both social and communication outcome are associated with the following characteristics at age 5: low cognitive and language skills, presence of epilepsy, and severity of autism. The multivariate analysis confirms that risk factors at age 5, were low language and severity of autism for both social and communication outcomes 10 years later, and that hours of early intervention was protective factor for communication.

The time spent in special-intervention services and regular classrooms combined did not add up to an adequate number of weekly hours for these children, particularly those exhibiting at least one of the following characteristics: low adaptation level, major behavioural problems or low socioprofessional category of parents.

The study aims were to identify developmental trajectories of young children with autism and investigate their prognostic factors. The participants were 208 children, assessed first at the age of 5 years, followed longitudinally, and reassessed 3 years later. The children's clinical characteristics and the interventions received were recorded. The results indicated two distinct outcome groups with more stability than change. When changes did occur, they pertained to symptom severity (which decreased) and speech level and adaptive behavior (which improved). A logistic regression analysis pointed out two main risk factors (symptom severity and speech level) and two main protection factors (communication skills and person-related cognition). Surprisingly, the amount of intervention (in terms of number of hours) was not related to outcome.

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