The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability has been represented with the two dominant variability modes: the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and dipole (IOD) modes. Here we investigate future changes of the two modes together with mean state and El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship under the anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project by comparing the historical run from 1950 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5 run from 2050 to 2099. The five best models are selected based on the evaluation of the 20 models' performances in simulating the two modes and Indian Ocean basic state for the latest 56 years. They are capable of capturing the IOBW and IOD modes in their spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, major periodicity, and relationship with ENSO to some extent. The five best models project the significant changes in the Indian Ocean mean state and variability including the two dominant modes in the latter part of twenty-first century under the anthropogenic warming scenario. First, the annual mean climatological SST displays an IOD-like pattern change over the Indian Ocean with enhanced warming in the northwestern Indian Ocean and relatively weaker warming off the Sumatra-Java coast. It is also noted that the monthly SST variance is increased over the eastern and southwestern Indian Ocean. Second, the IOBW variability on a quasibiennial time scale will be enhanced due to the strengthening of the ENSO-IOBW mode relationship although the total variance of the IOBW mode will be significantly reduced particularly during late summer and fall. The enhanced air-sea coupling over the Indian-western Pacific climate in response to El Nino activity in the future projection makes favorable condition for a positive IOD while it tends to derive relatively cold temperature over the eastern Indian Ocean. This positive IOD-like ENSO response weakens the relationship between the eastern Indian Ocean and El Nino while strengthens the relationship with western Indian Ocean. Third, the IOD mode, intrinsic coupled mode of the Indian Ocean may not be changed appreciably under the anthropogenic global warming.

A number of studies have investigated the mechanisms that determine changes in precipitation, including how a wet region gets wetter. However, not all monsoon areas get wetter-there is a need to understand the major factors behind changes in regional monsoon precipitation, in terms of external forcing and internal variabilities in the last six decades by a combination of different observed datasets and model runs. We have found that time of emergence of anthropogenic signals is robustly detected in the northern African monsoon before the 1990s with the use of the CESM Large Ensemble Project. From CMIP5 model runs and three reanalysis datasets, the results found are that the change in rainfall over African monsoon (AFM) is mainly due to anthropogenic forcing and that over Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) is affected by internal variability. Moreover, the cause of American monsoon (AMM) rainfall change cannot be known due to a discrepancy among observed datasets. Here we show that the asymmetry between Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) parts by green-house gas (GHG) is detected over the AFM and AAM regions. However, the land monsoon rainfall in the northern AMM is decreased by a combination of GHG and aerosol forcing. In general, the aerosol forcing causes a decreasing rainfall over the monsoon regions. In future projection, the land rainfall over the AAM and AMM are expected to increase and decrease in the future from most models' results. The asymmetry between an increase in NH and a decrease in SH is dominant in the future from most models' future simulation results, which is well shown over the AFM and AAM. This study suggests that the physical process of GHG and aerosol effects in rainfall should be explored in the context of regional aspects.

No abstract

No abstract