[1] We have developed a method to compute the total energy transmitted by tsunami waves, to the case where the earthquake source is unknown, by using deep-ocean pressure measurements and numerical models (tsunami source functions). Based on the first wave recorded at the two closest tsunameters (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)), our analysis suggests that the March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami generated off Japan originated from a 300-400 km long and 100 km wide area, and the total propagated energy is 3 Â 10 15 J (with 6% uncertainty). Measurements from 30 tsunameters and 32 coastal tide stations show excellent agreement with the forecasts obtained in real time. Our study indicates that the propagated energy and the source location are the most important source characteristics for predicting tsunami impacts. Interactions of tsunami waves with seafloor topography delay and redirect the energy flux, posing hazards from delayed and amplified waves with long duration. Seafloor topography also gives its spectral imprint to tsunami waves. Travel time forecast errors are path-specific and correlated to the major wave scatterers in the Pacific. Numerical dissipation in the propagation modeling highlights the need of high-resolution inundation models for accurate coastal predictions. On the other hand, it also can be used to account for physical dissipation to achieve efficiency. Our results provide guidelines for the earliest reliable tsunami forecast, warnings of long duration tsunami waves signals and enhancement of the experimental tsunami forecast system. We apply the method to quantify the energy of 15 past tsunamis, independently from earthquake magnitudes. The small tsunami to seismic radiation energy ratios, and their variability (0.01-0.8%), reinforce the importance of using deep-ocean tsunami data, the direct measures of tsunamis, for estimates of tsunami energy and accurate forecasting.

S U M M A R YWe conduct a comprehensive study of the Amorgos, Greece earthquake and tsunami of 1956 July 09, the largest such event in the Aegean Sea in the 20th century. Systematic relocation of the main shock and 34 associated events defines a rupture area measuring 75 × 40 km. The use of the Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism algorithm resolves the longstanding controversy about the focal geometry of the event, yielding a normal faulting mechanism along a plane dipping to the southeast, which expresses extensional tectonics in the back arc behind the Hellenic subduction zone. The seismic moment of 3.9 × 10 27 dyn cm is the largest measured in the past 100 yr in the Mediterranean Basin.A quantitative database of 68 values of tsunami run-up was built through the systematic interview, over the past 5 yr, of elderly eyewitness residents of 16 Aegean islands and the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. It confirms values of up to 20 m on the southern coast of Amorgos, 10 m on Astypalaia, and up to 14 m on the western coast of Folegandros, 80 km to the west of the epicentre. These values, largely in excess of the inferred seismic slip at the source, and their concentration along isolated segments of fault, are incompatible with the generation of the tsunami by the seismic dislocation, and require an ancillary source, in the form of a series of landslides triggered by the earthquake and/or its main aftershocks, a model confirmed by hydrodynamic simulations using both the dislocation source and models of landslide sources.

magnitude M w 7.8 earthquake off the south coast of western Java, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that effected over 300 km of coastline and killed more than 600 people, with locally focused runup heights exceeding 20 m. This slow earthquake was hardly felt on Java, and wind waves breaking masked any preceding withdrawal of the water from the shoreline, making this tsunami difficult to detect before impact. An International Tsunami Survey Team was deployed within one week and the investigation covered more than 600 km of coastline. Measured tsunami heights and run-up distributions were uniform at 5 to 7 m along 200 km of coast; however there was a pronounced peak on the south coast of Nusa Kambangan, where the tsunami impact carved a sharp trimline in a forest at elevations up to 21 m and 1 km inland. Local flow depth exceeded 8 m along the elevated coastal plain between the beach and the hill slope. We infer that the focused tsunami and runup heights on the island suggest a possible local submarine slump or mass movement.

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We model tsunami inundation and runup heights in Crescent City, California triggered by possible earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The CSZ is believed capable of producing great earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw ≈ 9.0 or greater. We simulate plausible CSZ rupture scenarios and calculate inundation using MOST. We benchmark our CSZ inundation projections against mapped flooded areas and tide gauge data from the 1964 tsunami, which destroyed 29 city blocks, and also from the damaging 15 November 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami. Results suggest that inundation from CSZ tsunamis could extend over 3 km inland, twice as far as the limits of the 1964 inundation. Crescent City is most vulnerable to slip on the Gorda segment of the CSZ. Rupture of the northern or Juan De Fuca segment produces lower water heights than the 1964 event. At Crescent City, CSZ ruptures produce a leading elevation wave that arrives only minutes after the earthquake. Educational and self–evacuation are essential to save lives.

On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated $9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning-level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.

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