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TÔ rres and R o g É r i o P e r e i r a B a s t o s Abstract Increasing rates of habitat loss and human occupation are creating demands for optimum strategies that maximize conservation efforts, despite the lack of detailed data required for implementation. Broad scale biogeographical data may furnish initial guidelines for conservation planning in a hierarchical framework for establishing conservation priorities and helping guide future research programmes. This approach may be critical in regions for which few detailed data on diversity, abundance and distribution are available, such as in the Cerrado biome of central Brazil. We used a macroecological approach, based on the extent of occurrence of 127 species of terrestrial vertebrates endemic to the Cerrado, to design a regional network of potential areas that represent all species at least once. The final network has a total of 24 regions widely distributed throughout the biome. We also evaluated these regions in terms of their human occupation by adding a cost for each cell based on 23 variables expressing variation in agricultural, demographic and cattle-ranching patterns on the Cerrado. Our analyses showed that conservation efforts should be concentrated in the south and south-east of the biome. This macroecological approach can provide broad guidelines for conservation and define the focus for more local and realistic conservation efforts.

grupos indicadores pode ser importante para minimizar problemas gerados pela falta de conhecimento. Assim, essa abordagem é interessante em um cenário de grandes incertezas (ausência de dados detalhados) e de rápida transformação da paisagem, possibilitando a otimização de estudos em grandes escalas e depois transferir os resultados para escalas espaciais mais locais e realmente relevantes para a conservação. nessas regiões, podem ser realizados, em um segundo momento, estudos mais detalhados a fim de avaliar padrões de viabilidade populacional, fragmentação de habitat e regiões potenciais de manutenção da diversidade genética.

-Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.Keywords: Ensemble forecasting, Bioclimatic envelope, Species distribution models, Modeling uncertainty. EFEITOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS GLOBAIS SOBRE OS PADRÕES DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO GEOGRÁFICA DAS ESPÉCIES DE PLANTAS ECONOMICAMENTE IMPORTANTES NO CERRADO

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