Background The aim of this study is to elucidate the potential risk zones prone to the invasion of perennial ornamental plant Lantana camara, which is native to South America and has invasive tendency in Jharkhand, eastern India, for present (2020) and the future (2050) climatic conditions under four different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). We analysed the current distribution pattern of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India and identified potentially suitable habitats prone to its further infestation in the future under the climate change scenario. Results Results showed the presence of L. camara invasion in ~ 13% of the geographical area of Jharkhand, Chotanagpur plateau which may expand up to 20–26% by 2050 depending upon emission scenarios as characterised by the four RCPs. Analysis for the current scenario suggests the dominance of L. camara in sub-zone V (12.77% under high risk zones (HRZ) and 9.5% under critical risk zones (CRZ)) followed by sub-zones IV (6.7%: HRZ; 4.19%: CRZ) and VI (2.49%: HRZ; 2.14%: CRZ). Future projection (2050) indicates a possible expansion of its distribution range across all agro-climatic sub-zones with dominance in sub-zones V and IV. Variable Bio_4 (temperature seasonality) was observed as the most contributing factor for the distribution of L. camara for current and future scenarios across all RCPs. Suitable habitat for L. camara mostly occurred under natural vegetation (66.05% of CRZ and 60.71% of HRZ) and agriculture landscape (29.51% of CRZ and 34.48% of HRZ). Conclusions The study provides an insight of invasion of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India, and reveals wide distribution across all the agro-climatic sub-zones of Jharkhand, mostly in open and disturbed areas under natural vegetation and agriculture landscapes. Future projections for the year 2050 suggest a continuous increase in the expansion range of invasion across Jharkhand and call for urgent initiatives to combat its further invasion.

The present paper highlights the importance of lac cultivation through Butea monosperma . We have modelled the suitable habitat of major lac host B. monosperma using MAXENT for the current and future climatic scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). The study suggested the dominance of suitable habitats of B. monosperma in central-eastern to eastern and southern parts of the country. Temperature seasonality (Bio_4) was the most significant bioclimatic variable in regulating the distribution of B. monosperma followed by elevation and annual precipitation (Bio_13). The projection for the year 2050 suggested the habitat shift towards the eastern and southern parts. The study indicated the major habitat of B. monosperma continued to exist in the Chotanagpur plateau in eastern India. The model predicted approximately a 9–13% decrease in the overall potential habitat of B. monosperma by 2050, and the distribution of species would be nearly extinct from the northern and western parts. Presently, only the 5% lac host trees are being utilised for lac cultivation, and the study suggested that conservation and promotion of B. monosperma on projected suitable habitats and even by utilising 25% of resources, the lac production may jump manifold catering to global demand, rural economy and employment and shall contribute towards ‘Self Reliant India’.

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