Modelling the potential risk zone of Lantana camara invasion and response to climate change in eastern India

Abstract

Background The aim of this study is to elucidate the potential risk zones prone to the invasion of perennial ornamental plant Lantana camara, which is native to South America and has invasive tendency in Jharkhand, eastern India, for present (2020) and the future (2050) climatic conditions under four different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). We analysed the current distribution pattern of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India and identified potentially suitable habitats prone to its further infestation in the future under the climate change scenario. Results Results showed the presence of L. camara invasion in ~ 13% of the geographical area of Jharkhand, Chotanagpur plateau which may expand up to 20–26% by 2050 depending upon emission scenarios as characterised by the four RCPs. Analysis for the current scenario suggests the dominance of L. camara in sub-zone V (12.77% under high risk zones (HRZ) and 9.5% under critical risk zones (CRZ)) followed by sub-zones IV (6.7%: HRZ; 4.19%: CRZ) and VI (2.49%: HRZ; 2.14%: CRZ). Future projection (2050) indicates a possible expansion of its distribution range across all agro-climatic sub-zones with dominance in sub-zones V and IV. Variable Bio_4 (temperature seasonality) was observed as the most contributing factor for the distribution of L. camara for current and future scenarios across all RCPs. Suitable habitat for L. camara mostly occurred under natural vegetation (66.05% of CRZ and 60.71% of HRZ) and agriculture landscape (29.51% of CRZ and 34.48% of HRZ). Conclusions The study provides an insight of invasion of L. camara in the plateau region of eastern India, and reveals wide distribution across all the agro-climatic sub-zones of Jharkhand, mostly in open and disturbed areas under natural vegetation and agriculture landscapes. Future projections for the year 2050 suggest a continuous increase in the expansion range of invasion across Jharkhand and call for urgent initiatives to combat its further invasion.

Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for two endangered mountaintop frogs from the rainforests of subtropical Australia

“…Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is a powerful method for predicting where a species occurs in the landscape and how a species distribution will respond to changing climatic conditions 33 – 35 . This approach uses the relationship between species' occurrences and climatic variables at those locations, such as average annual rainfall and average maximum temperature in the warmest month, to estimate its geographic distribution 36 , 37 .…”

Ecological niche shifts affect the potential invasive risk of Phytolacca americana (Phytolaccaceae) in China

“…The control of invasive plants focuses on prevention (McMahon et al 2021). In the areas that were predicted to get increased invasion, such as the Yangtze River Delta region and Fujian, prevention should be the top priority, especially the sensitive sites with high risk of invasion (Tiwari et al 2022). Human activities have been shown to contribute to the spread of exotic species (Wu et al 2010).…”

Spatial distribution and effects of Lantana camara invasion on soil properties and native vegetation community composition in Tugwi‐Mukosi Recreational Park, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

“…Lantana camara is a tropical origin plant which is native to central and northern South America and the Caribbean (Fensham et al, 1994; Tiwari et al, 2022). The species dispersed to the Netherlands from Brazil in the late 1600s before spreading to Europe, where it was widely propagated as an ornamental plant in greenhouses (Day et al, 2003).…”

“…Allelopathic effects of L. camara can indirectly alter vegetation species composition and structure in ecosystems (Chatanga, 2012). Native plant populations often change in structure in response to changes in environmental conditions brought about by L. camara allelochemicals (Moyo, 2004; Osunkoya & Perrett, 2011; Tiwari et al, 2022). Soil nutrient status is also altered following invasions by L. camara (Day et al, 2003; Negi et al, 2019).…”

“…The Theory of Invasibility by Davis et al (2000) who postulate that fluctuating resources in an area influence a plant community's vulnerability to invasions may also explain L. camara 's invasion success in new environments. Tiwari et al (2022) highlight that once L. camara is established in an area, eradicating the invasive species is very difficult due to the species' ecological adaptations. Consequently, early detection and intervention are critical in addressing the species invasions in ecosystems.…”