In this paper we evaluate the respective effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on growth in health care expenditures. We use microdata, i.e. representative samples of 3441 and 5003 French individuals observed in 1992 and 2000. Our data provide detailed information about morbidity and allow us to observe three components of expenditures: ambulatory care, pharmaceutical and hospital expenditures. We propose an original microsimulation method to identify the components of the drift observed between 1992 and 2000 in the health expenditure age profile. On the one hand, we find empirical evidence of health improvement at a given age: changes in morbidity induce a downward drift of the profile. On the other hand, the drift due to changes in practices is upward and sizeable. Detailed analysis attributes most of this drift to technological innovation. After applying our results at the macroeconomic level, we find that the rise in health care expenditures due to ageing is relatively small. The impact of changes in practices is 3.8 times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background-Women with acute myocardial infarction have a higher hospital mortality rate than men. This difference has been ascribed to their older age, more frequent comorbidities, and less frequent use of revascularization. The aim of this study is to assess these factors in relation to excess mortality in women. Methods and Results-All hospital admissions in France with a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction were extracted from the national payment database. Logistic regression on mortality was performed for age, comorbidities, and coronary interventions. Nonparametric microsimulation models estimated the percutaneous coronary intervention and mortality rates that women would experience if they were "treated like men." Data were analyzed from 74 389 patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, 30.0% of whom were women. Women were older (75 versus 63 years of age; PϽ0.001) and had a higher rate of hospital mortality (14.8% versus 6.1%; PϽ0.0001) than men. Percutaneous coronary interventions were more frequent in men (7.4% versus 4.8%; 24.4% versus 14.2% with stent; PϽ0.001). Mortality adjusted for age and comorbidities was higher in women (PϽ0.001), with an excess adjusted absolute mortality of 1.95%. Simulation models related 0.46% of this excess to reduced use of procedures. Survival benefit related to percutaneous coronary intervention was lower among women. Conclusions-The difference in mortality rate between men and women with acute myocardial infarction is due largely to the different age structure of these populations. However, age-adjusted hospital mortality was higher for women and was associated with a lower rate of percutaneous coronary intervention. Simulations suggest that women would derive benefit from more frequent use of percutaneous coronary intervention, although these procedures appear less protective in women than in men.

This paper investigates on the existence of physician-induced demand (PID) for French physicians. The test is carried out for GPs and specialists, using a representative sample of 4500 French self-employed physicians over the 1979-1993 period. These physicians receive a fee-for-services (FFS) payment and fees are controlled. The panel structure of our data allows us to take into account unobserved heterogeneity related to the characteristics of physicians and their patients. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators in order to obtain consistent and efficient estimates. We show that physicians experience a decline of the number of consultations when they face an increase in the physician:population ratio. However this decrease is very slight. In addition, physicians counterbalance the fall in the number of consultations by an increase in the volume of care delivered in each encounter. Econometric results give a strong support for the existence of PID in the French system for ambulatory care.