The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Main textThe outbreak of COVID-19 has spread rapidly from its origin in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China (1). A range of interventions have been implemented following the detection in late December 2019 of a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology, and identification of the causative virus SARS-CoV-2 in early January 2020 (2). Interventions include improved rates of diagnostic testing, clinical management, rapid isolation of suspected and confirmed cases and, most notably, restrictions on mobility (hereafter called cordon sanitaire) imposed on Wuhan city on 23 rd January. Travel restrictions were subsequently imposed on 14 other cities across Hubei Province and partial movement restrictions have been enacted in many cities across China. Initial analysis suggests that the Wuhan cordon sanitaire resulted in an average delay of COVID-19 spread to other cities of 3 days (3), but the true extent of the effect of the mobility restrictions and other types of interventions on transmission has not been examined in detail (4, 5).Questions remain over how these interventions affected the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to locations outside of Wuhan. We here use real-time mobility data, crowdsourced line-list data of cases with reported travel . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint .
Experiments take place in a physical environment but also a social environment. Generalizability from experimental manipulations to more typical contexts may be limited by violations of ecological validity with respect to either the physical or the social environment. A replication and extension of a recent study (a blood glucose manipulation) was conducted to investigate the effects of experimental demand (a social artifact) on participant behaviors judging the geographical slant of a large-scale outdoor hill. Three different assessments of experimental demand indicate that even when the physical environment is naturalistic, and the goal of the main experimental manipulation was primarily concealed, artificial aspects of the social environment (such as an explicit requirement to wear a heavy backpack while estimating the slant of a hill) may still be primarily responsible for altered judgments of hill orientation.
Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve, as they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigate the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based PCR data. We identify a multi-stage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7’s increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explore how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by non-pharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
The connectivity of a network contains information about the relationships between nodes, which can denote interactions, associations, or dependencies. We show that this information can be analyzed by measuring the uncertainty (and certainty) contained in paths along nodes and links in a network. Specifically, we derive from first principles a measure known as effective information and describe its behavior in common network models. Networks with higher effective information contain more information in the relationships between nodes. We show how subgraphs of nodes can be grouped into macronodes, reducing the size of a network while increasing its effective information (a phenomenon known as causal emergence). We find that informative higher scales are common in simulated and real networks across biological, social, informational, and technological domains. These results show that the emergence of higher scales in networks can be directly assessed and that these higher scales offer a way to create certainty out of uncertainty.
Two experiments are reported concerning the perception of ground extent in order to discover whether prior reports of anisotropy between frontal extents and extents in depth were consistent across different measures (visual matching and pantomime walking) and test environments (outdoor environments and virtual environments). In Experiment 1 it was found that depth extents of up to 7 m are indeed perceptually compressed relative to frontal extents in an outdoor environment, and that perceptual matching provided more precise estimates than did pantomime walking. In Experiment 2, similar anisotropies were found using similar tasks in a similar (but virtual) environment. In both experiments pantomime walking measures seemed to additionally compress the range of responses. Experiment 3 supported the hypothesis that range compression in walking measures of perceived distance might be due to proactive interference (memory contamination). It is concluded that walking measures are calibrated for perceived egocentric distance, but that pantomime walking measures may suffer range compression. Depth extents along the ground are perceptually compressed relative to frontal ground extents in a manner consistent with the angular scale expansion hypothesis.
Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.
What is the natural reference frame for seeing large-scale spatial scenes in locomotor action space? Prior studies indicate an asymmetric angular expansion in perceived direction in large-scale environments: Angular elevation relative to the horizon is perceptually exaggerated by a factor of 1.5, whereas azimuthal direction is exaggerated by a factor of about 1.25. Here participants made angular and spatial judgments when upright or on their sides in order to dissociate egocentric from allocentric reference frames. In Experiment 1 it was found that body orientation did not affect the magnitude of the up-down exaggeration of direction, suggesting that the relevant orientation reference frame for this directional bias is allocentric rather than egocentric. In Experiment 2, the comparison of large-scale horizontal and vertical extents was somewhat affected by viewer orientation, but only to the extent necessitated by the classic (5%) horizontal-vertical illusion (HVI) that is known to be retinotopic. Large-scale vertical extents continued to appear much larger than horizontal ground extents when observers lay sideways. When the visual world was reoriented in Experiment 3, the bias remained tied to the ground-based allocentric reference frame. The allocentric HVI is quantitatively consistent with differential angular exaggerations previously measured for elevation and azimuth in locomotor space.
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