BackgroundSeventy percent of urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in slums. Sustaining HIV patients in these high-risk and highly mobile settings is a major future challenge. This study seeks to assess program retention and to find determinants for low adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and drop-out from an established HIV/ART program in Kibera, Nairobi, one of Africa's largest informal urban settlements.Methods and FindingsA prospective open cohort study of 800 patients was performed at the African Medical Research Foundation (AMREF) clinic in the Kibera slum. Adherence to ART and drop-out from the ART program were independent outcomes. Two different adherence measures were used: (1) “dose adherence” (the proportion of a prescribed dose taken over the past 4 days) and (2) “adherence index” (based on three adherence questions covering dosing, timing and special instructions). Drop-out from the program was calculated based on clinic appointment dates and number of prescribed doses, and a patient was defined as being lost to follow-up if over 90 days had expired since the last prescribed dose. More than one third of patients were non-adherent when all three aspects of adherence – dosing, timing and special instructions – were taken into account. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that not disclosing HIV status, having a low level of education, living below the poverty limit (US$ 2/day) and not having a treatment buddy were significant predictors for non-adherence. Additionally, one quarter of patients dropped out for more than 90 days after the last prescribed ART dose. Not having a treatment buddy was associated with increased risk for drop-out (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% CI = 1.0–1.9).ConclusionThese findings point to the dilemma of trying to sustain a growing number of people on life-long ART in conditions where prevailing stigma, poverty and food shortages threatens the long-term success of HIV treatment.

Despite free drugs and low associated costs, dropout probabilities in this study are higher and adherence to ART is lower compared with other studies from sub-Saharan Africa. Our results illustrate that ART programs in resource-limited settings, such as Kibera, risk low adherence and retention rates when expanding services. Specific and intensified patient support is needed to minimize the risk of dropout and nonadherence causing future significant health threats not only to individuals but also to public health.

Factors modifiable for interventions by health care professionals are patient-provider relationship, drug or alcohol problems and patients with long treatment periods.

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