The article is based on the actual collection of silk fabrics price in oriental silk market and surrounding areas for data support, using related theory and experiment analysis method of artificial neural network to analyze and predict regional silk fabrics price index, second class silk fabrics price index and single variety silk fabrics price index. Compare the accuracy and applicability by related index, applied the accumulative total of instant statistics to analysis the silk market fluctuations through the reasonable modeling prediction method. This article confirms that the neural network is a kind of good method used in Analysising and forecasting of regional silk fabrics price index.
According to the collected data of the market monthly closing price on dry cocoon and raw silk, predictive modeling and analyzing on the price trend of dry cocoon and raw silk are made based on the related theories and test analysis of BP Artificial Neural Network is carried out. Developed corresponding procedure with Neural Network toolbox under the condition of MATLAB, and then set up BP network relevant prediction models, at last, checked up with examples. At the same time, this study set up corresponding time series forecasting models and made empirical analysis on the basis of Eviews software. The results show that, the two methods both fit for short-term prediction, BP network can achieve human coordination control, the better predictive precision, which supplies an analysis way for silk cocoon market, all of that can be referred to in the future.
Empirical analysis on typical product categories, product series and Price Index of every level of single species is made by using classical ARMA models as well as ARCH models, which based on the actual data sampling and network. This study sets up AR models with ARCH effect of timing of product operations Index that judged by LM test used as model identification, and then establishes corresponding mathematical quantitative model for prediction. All of these are carried out by the Metrical Economics and the Eviews software. With time series, the fitting and prediction for running change-trend of silk are also in the theoretic confidence interval, which can also verify the degree of accuracy and precision of the established model.
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