Time Series Modeling and Analysis on the Silk Crape Satin Product

Abstract

Empirical analysis on typical product categories, product series and Price Index of every level of single species is made by using classical ARMA models as well as ARCH models, which based on the actual data sampling and network. This study sets up AR models with ARCH effect of timing of product operations Index that judged by LM test used as model identification, and then establishes corresponding mathematical quantitative model for prediction. All of these are carried out by the Metrical Economics and the Eviews software. With time series, the fitting and prediction for running change-trend of silk are also in the theoretic confidence interval, which can also verify the degree of accuracy and precision of the established model.